Osasuna VS Real Valladolid

Osasuna welcome Valladolid for this Spanish LaLiga round 12 battle at Estadio El Sadar Saturday evening Beijing time. This is the second-best league in the world after English Premier League and despite the fact that none of two teams are among the top teams in LaLiga I expect a pretty high-quality and entertaining clash here. Most importantly, I have, once again spotted a lucrative betting opportunity here. We will try to extend the 13/14 latest picks streak going betting on the hosts to win with a probability of 57%. I struggle to understand the odds offered on the betting market.. The hosts are the better team in all areas of the game – especially in terms of defensive structure and defenders individual skill-level. Let's keep in mind that Valladolid were promoted to this level from LaLiga2 for this season. The hosts, on the other hand, played a strong last season and finished in 10th place with respectable 47 points. I expect another good season from Osasuna and rate them as the 9th best team in my power rating that illustrates the teams' pure class. They currently occupy the same 9th place with 17 points. This is also the number of points they would have deserved in terms of expected points(xPTS). Their goal difference is 11:11. They should be a little more creative offensively if they want to finish in top-8 though. They have played well at home this season winning four of the six matches in front of their loud fans.In their most recent match they faced Girona away from home and as underdogs according to the betting market and took a point after a very balanced match. Girona only managed to record one shot on their goal. Osasuna's defense has indeed been solid this season in most matches. It was good to see that the midfielders,once again, actively took part in defending. Before this they were excellent at home against Espanyol and won 1-0 after having 65% ball possession. They also recorded much more goal attempts, shots on target, passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks than thevisitors.

Valladolid, on the other hand, have grabbed 14 points so far and have a score difference of 11:15 and currently occupy the 11th place. However, I rate them only as the 17th best team in this league. They have three more points to their account than they would have deserved in terms of xPTS. In their most recent match took a massively undeserved win at home. 1-0 was the final score despite the visitors having a whopping 75% ball possession and created 0.92 in expected goals – Valladolid's number was just 0.63. They also recorded 20 scoring attempts! Real Sociedad also recorded clearly more passes (560-185), completed passes (490-185), attacks and dangerous attacks (53-21) Real Sociedad are a strong team and I believe this surprising win affects the odds quite a bit here.. Before this they beat Celta Vigo at home 4-1 and in this match the final score is even more misleading than against R. Sociedad. The visitors were the better team as a whole but made some silly mistakes in this match. Celta Vigo recorded 2.14 in expected goals – Valladolid's number was 1.59. The visitors also had 62% ball possession and had much more goal attempts – 22-9.

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奥萨苏纳VS皇家巴拉多利德

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北京时间周六晚上，奥萨苏纳将在萨达尔球场迎来巴拉多利德。这是世界上第二好的联赛，仅次于英超联赛，尽管事实上两支球队都不是在LaLiga的顶级球队，我希望这里有一个相当高质量和有趣的冲突。最重要的是，我再次发现了一个有利可图的赌博机会。我们将尝试扩大13/14的最新预测，以57%的概率押注东道主获胜。我很难理解博彩市场提供的赔率。东道主在比赛的各个方面都是更好的球队——特别是在防守结构和后卫的个人技术水平方面。让我们记住，Valladolid在本赛季从LaLiga2升级到这个级别。另一方面，东道主上个赛季表现强劲，以47分排名第10。我期待奥萨苏纳的下一个好赛季，在我的实力评估中，他们是第9强的球队，这说明了这支球队纯粹的级别。他们目前以17分排名第九。这也是他们应该得到的期望分数(xPTS)。他们的净胜球是11:11。如果他们想进入前8，他们应该在进攻上更有创造力。他们本赛季在主场踢得很好，在吵闹的球迷面前赢得了六场比赛中的四场。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们客场面对赫罗纳，根据博彩市场，他们处于劣势，在一场非常平衡的比赛后拿到了一分。赫罗纳只射进了一次球。奥萨苏纳的防守在本赛季的大多数比赛中都很稳固。很高兴看到中场球员再次积极参与防守。在此之前，他们在主场对阵西班牙人的比赛中表现出色，并在65%的控球率下以1-0取胜。他们的射门次数、射正次数、传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都比客队多。

而巴拉多利德队则以11分15分的差距取得了14分，排在第11位。然而，我只把他们评为联盟第17强的球队。在xPTS方面，他们的账户比他们应该得到的多了3分。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场获得了一场大胜。尽管客队拥有高达75%的控球率，并创造了0.92个预期进球数，但最终的比分是1-0——瓦拉多利德的预期进球数只有0.63。他们还记录了20次得分尝试!皇家社会还记录了更多的传球(560:185)，完成传球(490:185)，进攻和危险进攻(53:21)。皇家社会是一支强大的球队，我相信这场意外的胜利对胜率有很大的影响。在此之前，他们在主场4-1击败了维戈塞尔塔，在这场比赛中，最终比分甚至比对阵R. Sociedad时更具有误导性。客队整体上是较好的球队，但在这场比赛中犯了一些愚蠢的错误。维戈塞尔塔的预期进球数为2.14个，而瓦拉多利德的预期进球数为1.59个。客队的控球率也达到62%，射门次数也更多——22比9。