Bastia VS Bordeaux

Bastia welcome Bordeaux for this French Ligue 2 clash at Stade Armand Cesari early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This is the second tier of French football and is of mediocre level by European standards. It is a very low-scoring league on average. The goal expectancy is low here as well – some 2.12 according to the betting market. The draw would not surprise anyone and the probability here is even higher than normally in this league – 34%. This result would be enough to bring my fans and me a winner with the +0.5 goals handicap option on the hosts. The betting market see the visitors as favorites, but I disagree! In my view the hosts are narrow favorites. The home advantage in French Ligue 1 is bigger than in most European football leagues. I will not let Bastia’s mediocre home record in their most recent matches fool me at all! Bordeaux currently occupy the third place in the standings with 23 points. I do not expect an easy season for this traditional club that got relegated from Ligue 1 for this season. There were a lot of internal issues within the team and the organization as a whole and according to my sources these problems have not been fully settled yet.

However, Bordeaux do have strong team for this level and seeing them promote back would not be a big surprise.. Even so, despite the good performances in most games they are over-valued by the bookies here. Probably mainly because by historical success and financial resources they undoubtedly belong to the highest level. However, we must not forget that they have grabbed several more points this season than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (xPTS). For example, two weeks ago, they beat Laval as favorites 2-1 away from home but did not convince me and even a home win would not have been too undeserved. The ball possession was 50-50% and Laval even recorded more goal attempts, attacks and dangerous attacks. In their most recent match, they beat Metz at home, but the match was pretty balanced. In this match they were priced around 2.00 to win. I think their offense was not too impressive and only recorded four shots on goal. Bastia, on the other hand, are in 10th place with 16 points buy would have deserved three more points in terms if xPTS more and I expected them ro climb up the standings soon! They should be a little more creative in offense and pass the ball faster to break the opponent's defense.