Botafogo VS Internacional

Botafogo welcome Internacional for this Brazilian Serie A round 32 clash at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro. I expect a pretty good-level match here between two good teams. The bookies see this match as a coin toss (50-50%) but I have to side with the hosts. They currently occupy the 10th place in the standings but are in the 7th place in my power rating that illustrates the team’s pure class They would have deserved four more points in terms of expected points xPTS than the actual 43 they have in the bank. They are in fine form and have won four of their latest five games. Furthermore, they have lost just two of their latest 10 matches. The only recent loss came in round 29 against a dominant team in this league, Palmeiras at home 1-3. Palmeiras currently top the standings with a massive 11 points gap to Internacional. Palmeiras’ goal difference 53:21 tells a lot. Palmeiras were big favorites in this match on the betting market- priced around 1.70 to win by the biggest and sharpest bookies with the biggest betting limits. They did deserve the win, but Botafogo still fought well and Palmeiras, in fact, only recorded one more scoring attempts than the hosts – 11- Ball possession was 51-49% in their favor.

Internacional are clearly over-valued by the bookies here in my view. The home advantage is usually big here – here as well - and with the +0.5 goals handicap my fans and I have a high chance of winning as a draw would be enough. Let’s remember that Internacional have struggled quite a lot on the road winning just two of their most recent games away from home. I only rate them as the 4th best team in this league. They did beat Goias as massive favorites priced around 1.40 to win on the betting market but did not really convince me. They looked pretty vulnerable defensively allowing the hosts who are not a strong team 16 scoring attempts. Before this they were very lucky to get a point away from home at the hands of Flamengo. It was a goalless draw.