HJK Helsinki VS KuPS

HJK host KuPS for this Finnish Veikkausliiga Championship Group clash at Bolt Arena and I will of course be at the stadium once again watching the best two Finnish clubs locking horns. This is the last round of my home country’s first tier – a very profitable league for my fans this season and in the future! HJK from Helsinki, my home city, are my favorite team in Finland but this has not stopped me from going against them, mostly in handicap betting, this season. Indeed, being a fan has nothing to do with professional football bettor! We have won almost all the many bets on HJK’s games this season. For example, last Sunday when they controlled the events in Valkeakoski in a brilliant way and secured the championship once again. Haka did put some pressure on HJK in the second half, but HJK allowed them very little in expected goals and won 1-0. Now they can concentrate on UEFA Europa League. The next match will be played on the 27th of this month.

Indeed, in Europa League they take on big clubs like Real Betis, a very strong Spanish team, legendary Jose Mourinho’s Roma and Bulgarian champions Ludogorets. These teams are of course much better and bigger by financial resources than HJK. Even so, HJK have played pretty well as massive underdogs and even forced Ludogorets to a 1-1 draw at this same stadium and even a win would not have unjustified. On Thursday Ludogorets were much better though and beat HJK 2-0 at home. One might say HJK have winning and being the dominant team in Finland in their “DNA” and despite the heavy rotating by both excellent coaches HJK’s Toni Koskela and KuPS’s Simo Valakari there is no reason to question the fact they HJK are clear favorites here. They have a massive by number of players and super-good by quality squad by Veikkausliiga standards. In terms of injuries the situation is pretty good for them despite two key players Lucas Lingman and Santeri Väänänen being out because of small injuries and Miro Tenho, the team captain, is suspended. The bookies have clearly over-reacted to these absences and the odds on HJK have become way too high! They have a 49% chance of winning.

We must not forget that in matches with nothing at stake the home team usually have a big edge. HJK have invited their loyal fans for championship celebrations after the match and I expect a pretty good atmosphere at Bolt Arena. The weather is not great in Helsinki, +11 and rainy but there will still be a good number of fans at the stadium. I do not think HJK want to offer them anything but a win here! KuPS have played a good season but have declined significantly starting from August, as I expected and mentioned in my analysis multiple times. Their squad is much narrower than HJK’s and fatigue and their coach’s willingness to leave the club for a job in Scotland have left a negative mark on the team.. I really wonder what is KuPS level of motivation here.. The season ended in a disappointment (2nd place) and the path the Conference League group phase is almost impossible for a Finnish team. Indeed, last season they faced German Union Berlin in the qualifying losing 0-4 on aggregate. This season Swiss Young Boys humiliated them 2-0 and 3-0 without even fielding their best players! It must be hard for KuPS to realize that at the end of the day they are the second or third-best team in Veikkausliiga in the long run. Let’s also remember that they grabbed more points than they would have deserved in terms of expected points this season. They have also allowed much less goals than the expected goals allowed (xGA) statistic show. HJK will probably field Riku Riski, a HJK legend, as well as Janne Saksela today – both have suffered from nasty injuries and have not played much recently. Clearly the betting market does not value these guys too much but they must be full of motivation here and are, after all, good players by Veikkausliiga standards!

本译文试用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

HJK在博尔特球场举办了芬兰Veikkausliiga冠军赛小组赛的up，我当然会再次在球场观看这两支芬兰最好的俱乐部交锋。这是我祖国甲级联赛的最后一轮比赛——这是一个对我的球迷本赛季和未来都非常有利可图的联赛!来自赫尔辛基的HJK，我的家乡，是我在芬兰最喜欢的球队，但这并没有阻止我对抗他们，主要是在障碍博彩，本赛季。事实上，作为一个球迷和职业足球投注者没有任何关系!本赛季HJK的比赛，我们几乎赢了所有的赌注。例如，上周日他们以出色的方式控制了瓦尔基科斯基的比赛，并再次获得了冠军。Haka在下半场确实给HJK施加了一些压力，但是HJK几乎没有给他们预期的进球机会，最终以1-0取胜。现在他们可以集中精力打欧联杯了。下一场比赛将在本月27日举行。

的确，在欧联杯中，他们会挑战像皇家贝蒂斯这样的豪门，一支非常强大的西班牙球队，传奇何塞·穆里尼奥的罗马和保加利亚冠军卢多戈雷茨。这些队伍在财力上当然比香港海港队强得多，也大得多。即便如此，港红在不被人所接受的情况下也踢得相当不错，甚至在同一个球场逼得卢多戈雷特1-1战平，即使是一场胜利也不是没有道理的。周四，卢多戈雷特队的表现要好得多，他们在主场2-0击败了香港客队。有人可能会说，在他们的“DNA”中，HJK已经赢得了比赛，成为了芬兰的统治球队，尽管HJK的Toni Koskela和北爱尔兰的Simo Valakari都是出色的教练，但没有理由质疑他们HJK在这里明显是受欢迎的事实。他们的球员数量庞大，按照维科斯里加的标准，他们的阵容质量超级好。在伤病方面，他们的情况相当不错，尽管两名关键球员卢卡斯·林门和桑特里Väänänen因为小伤缺阵，队长米罗·天浩也被停赛。博彩公司显然对这些缺席反应过度，HJK的赔率变得太高了!他们有49%的机会获胜。

我们不能忘记，在没有任何利害关系的比赛中，主队通常有很大的优势。港队邀请了他们的忠实球迷在赛后参加冠军庆祝活动，我希望博尔特球馆的气氛会很好。赫尔辛基的天气不是很好，+11和多雨，但仍然会有很多球迷在体育场。我不认为港高想在这里给他们任何东西，除了一场胜利!up打出了一个不错的赛季，但从8月份开始大幅下降，正如我所预期的，并在我的分析中多次提到的。他们的阵容比HJK窄得多，疲劳和他们的教练愿意离开俱乐部去苏格兰工作给球队留下了负面的印记。我真的想知道up的动机是什么。本赛季以令人失望的成绩(第二名)结束，对于一支芬兰球队来说，进入联盟小组阶段的道路几乎是不可能的。事实上，上赛季他们在预选赛中对阵德国柏林，总比分0-4落败。本赛季瑞士队在没有派出最好球员的情况下，2-0和3-0羞辱了他们!up肯定很难意识到，从长远来看，他们是Veikkausliiga第二或第三强的球队。让我们也记住，他们在本赛季获得了比他们应该得到的更多的积分。他们的失球数也比预期失球数少得多(xGA)。hkjk可能会派出Riku Riski, hkjk的传奇人物，以及Janne Saksela，他们都遭受了严重的伤病，最近没有踢太多比赛。显然，博彩市场并不太看重这些球员，但他们必须充满动力，毕竟，按照维考斯里加的标准，他们是优秀的球员!