Rodez VS Le Havre

odez welcome Le Havre for this French Ligue 2 round 12 battle at Stade Paul-Lignon Sunday night Beijing time. This the second tier of French football and is of decent level by European standards. There are some talented young - in many cases players of African descent - in this league but overall, the level is still significantly lower than at the highest level – Ligue 1. I agree with the betting market here on the fact that the visitors are the better team and deservedly go into this match as favorites. They have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game, especially in defense but my main point here is that the difference is smaller than the betting market seems to think. Le Havre have allowed just five goals so far, but we must realize that in terms of expected goals allowed (xGA) the number should be higher. Rodez, on the other hand, have conceded 15 goals. All we need here to win once again is the hosts to avoid a defeat as the recommended pick is Rodez +1 with the 1x2 handicap option. I see the visitors’ chance of winning being only 41% here.

We should not forget about last season either as not that much has changed for this season.. Le Havre grabbed only seven more points than Rodez and finished in the 8th place. I have raised their power rating from my in-depth preseason analysis, but the bookies seemed to have gone carried away by their strong but still somewhat lucky also start to the season and over-value them here. They have grabbed a few more points than they would have deserved in terms of expected points. I only rate them as the 6th best team in this quite balanced league overall. However, they currently occupy the third place with 22 points to their account. Rodez, on the other hand, are 13th in my power rating the reflects the teams’ pure class. I expect Rodez, with quite limited offensive power, to be pretty cautious here even in front of their own fans as Le Havre can be deadly on counter attacks if the opponent takes too big risks offensive risks

According to the biggest and sharpest bookies with the biggest betting limits the goal expectancy here is about 2.10 but I see this clash as more low-scoring and the draw would certainly not surprise anyone! The probability of this result is 33%. Yes, Le Havre have netted the ball 19 times, but the number of goals scored by them in a match on average will surely come down as the season progresses. Both teams are in fine form at the moment. Indeed, Rodez have lost just one of their latest five matches – the visitors have not suffered a defeat in any of their most recent five games. This somewhat unlucky loss in the hands of a dangerous team, Amiens, came on the 1st of this month at home 0-1. Amiens only recorded one shot on target in this clash – the hosts had three. Rodez also recorded more passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Le Havre unurguably were good at their most recent match beating Bastia 3-0 as clear favorites, priced around 1.85 to win by the bookies. They did deserve the win, but it was still a much more balanced than the final score would suggest. The ball possession was close to 50-50%. Lastly, I want to mention that by players’ total market according to Transfermarkt.com the visitors are only slightly bigger of the two teams.

本译文试用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周日晚上，法甲第12轮比赛将在保罗-利尼昂体育场进行，奥德兹欢迎勒阿弗尔。这是法国足球的第二梯队，以欧洲标准来看，水平还算不错。在这个联赛中有一些有天赋的年轻球员——很多是非洲裔球员——但总体来说，水平仍然明显低于最高水平——法甲。我同意博彩市场的看法，客队是更强的球队，理应作为热门进入这场比赛。他们在比赛的各个方面都比东道主有优势，尤其是在防守方面，但我的主要观点是，这种差距比博彩市场似乎认为的要小。勒阿弗尔到目前为止只丢了5个球，但我们必须意识到，从被允许的预期进球(xGA)来看，这个数字应该更高。另一方面，罗德斯已经丢了15球。我们需要在这里再次获胜的是东道主避免失败，因为推荐的选择是罗德斯+1与1x2障碍选项。我看客队的胜率只有41%。

我们也不应该忘记上赛季，因为本赛季变化不大。勒阿弗尔仅比罗德斯多得7分，排名第8。我从季前赛的深入分析中提高了他们的实力评级，但博彩公司似乎被他们强大但仍有些幸运的赛季开始冲昏了头，高估了他们的价值。就预期积分而言，他们已经获得了比他们应该得到的更多的积分。在这个相当均衡的联盟中，我只把他们排在第六名。然而，他们目前以22分排名第三。另一方面，罗德斯在我的能力评估中排在第13位，这反映了这支球队纯粹的水平。我希望罗德斯在进攻能力有限的情况下，即使在自己的球迷面前也会非常谨慎，因为如果对手冒太大的进攻风险，勒阿弗尔的反击可能是致命的

根据最大和最敏锐的博彩公司和最大的投注限额，这里的进球预期是2.10，但我认为这场冲突是更低的得分，平局肯定不会让任何人感到惊讶!这个结果的概率是33%。是的，勒阿弗尔进球19次，但是随着赛季的推进，他们在每场比赛中的平均进球数肯定会下降。两队目前状态都很好。事实上，罗德斯在最近的五场比赛中只输了一场——客队在最近的五场比赛中没有输过一场。这个月的1号，我们在主场0-1输给了危险的亚眠队。亚眠在这场比赛中只有一次射正，而东道主有三次射正。罗德斯也记录了更多的传球、完成传球、进攻和危险进攻。勒阿弗尔在最近的一场比赛中以3-0击败了巴斯蒂亚，毫无疑问是最受欢迎的球队，博彩公司给出了1.85左右的赔率。他们确实应该赢得这场胜利，但比分仍然比最终比分显示的要平衡得多。控球率接近50-50%。最后，我想提到的是，根据Transfermarkt.com的数据，从球员总市场来看，客队仅略高于两支球队。