Torino VS Juventus

Torino welcome Juventus for this Italian Serie A round 10 clash at Stadio Olimpico di Torino in Turin. Indeed, this is a Turin derby and the atmosphere will surely be great at the stadium on Saturday! The hosts currently occupy the 10th place in the standings with a goal difference of 8:11 and 11 points to their account. Juventus, on the other hand, are in 8th place with 13 points and a goal difference of 12:7. Indeed, the iconic club are having a yet another disappointing season and winning Scudetto (the Serie A championship) is only a distant dream at the moment.. Juventus did lift the trophy many times in a row in the 2010's, but the streak came to an end 2021 when Inter Milan become the champions. It seems that the betting market fails to fully recognize that Juventus’s level has really dropped a lot in the past 2-3 years - and also from last season! I would not be at all surprised if they were to miss the top 4 – and a ticket for the Champions League for next season. They have actually been a little lucky in Serie A so far grabbing some two points than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (xPTS). The number of goals scored is the same as the number of expected goals scored (xG) but they have been very lucky in terms of expected goals allowed (xA) conceding six goals less than would have been expected. xPTS, xG and xGA or statistical tools commonly used by most professional football bettors to find under – or over-valued teams in an attempt to find lucrative matches to bet on to make a long-term profit. As for Torino the situation is the opposite and they would have deserved four more points, five more goals and two goals less allowed! Indeed, their expected number of points is bigger than that of the disappointing Juventus! The home advantage in this derby is slightly smaller than in a “normal” match but cannot be underestimated.

The biggest and sharpest bookies with the betting limits have smaller odds on Juventus as to win here but I must disagree! In fact, I believe the bookies have adjusted their odds here – not really reflecting their actual probability estimation (%). This is something they commonly do also for example in Manchester United's matches. Their goal normally is to make sure they make a profit no matter what the result of the match is – or at least to avoid taking too big risks that materialize if most of the money piles up in one team. Juventus are a strong brand with a massive number of fans globally and also have many famous players. This leads to a huge number of people betting on them even at a little lower odds.. Despite all the negative things I have written about Juventus there are, of course, the better team by pure class here but I have lowered their power rating that illustrates the teams’ pure class from the preseason analysis. They are in 5th place in this ranking – Torino occupy the 9th place. However, Juventus have a long list of injuries going into this match: M. Ake has broken his leg, very important F. Chiesa, the Italian hero in the victorious EURO 2020, last year has a knee injury, M. De Sciglio has a thigh injury, talented and experienced A. Di Maria suffers from a muscle injury. Moreover, Kaio Jorge has a knee injury, D. Peeters is out because of a muscle injury and the volatile but ultra-talented Frenchman P. Pogba has a knee injury. Indeed, despite the long list of missing players – which significantly hurts Juventus’s chances I believe the legendary Juventus manager Massimiliano Allegri, 55, might well be sacked if his team loses this game.. Juventus are clearly low in confidence and according to my sources the atmosphere within the team is, understandably, far from great.. I rate the hosts as narrow favorites here but as a draw would be enough for my fans and me the chance to win for the 7th time in a row is close to 70%! I see this match between these two teams with some offensive problems as more-low scoring than the betting market does, and the draw is more probable than in this league on average – 33%.

Neither team have been in too good form lately as Torino have won one of their latest five matches and played won draw. Juventus, on the other hand, have lost three of their latest five matches and were very disappointing against Maccabi Haifa in Champions League on Tuesday losing 0-2 to this pretty small team whose players’ total market value is very low by Champions League standards. Indeed, their squad is valued at just 20.60 million euros according to a respected and well-known German website, Transfermarkt.com. The market values can, of course, sometimes be misleading, but the bookies and the best professional football bettors pay more and more attention to these numbers.. The football (players) market is, after all, a global one. However, if two players are equally good and one of them is 20 years old and the other is 30 years old the younger guy, of course, has a much bigger market value. In my view the 20.60 million is a bit too low. Even so. Juventus should win – or at least take a draw against a team of Maccabi Haifa’s caliber - even a way from home. Haifa are a very inexperienced at the highest level of European club football. It was an abysmal performance from Juventus especially offensively despite creating a few good scoring chances. Juve recorded five shots on goal, the hosts had four but did record more scoring attempts -14:11. Juve did beat the Israeli club last week in Turin 3-1 but were not convincing at all as huge favorites – priced around 1.40 to win by the bookies. Indeed, they did record 51% ball possession and three more shots on goal, but the massive underdogs recorded more goal attempts – 20! Both teams recorded 46 dangerous attacks. Juve were lame in their most recent Serie A match as will losing to AC Milan 0-2 away from home despite 60% ball possession. Indeed, they only recorded 0.54 in expected goals! Torino, on the other hand, have faced the stunningly good Napoli, who top the standings without a loss (!), and Inter recently and these losses do not worry me as Torino played okay as massive underdogs.. In their most recent match, they would have deserved a win at home against Empoli after creating 2.87 in expected goals – Empoli’s number was just 0.21.

GOOD LUCK!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

都灵欢迎尤文图斯参加在都灵奥林匹克球场举行的意甲第10轮比赛。的确，这是一场都灵德比，周六球场的气氛一定会很好!主队目前在积分榜上排名第十，净胜球为8:11，积11分。另一方面，尤文图斯以13分和12:7的净胜球排名第8。事实上，这支标志性的俱乐部又经历了一个令人失望的赛季，赢得意甲冠军目前只是一个遥远的梦想。尤文图斯确实在2010年多次蝉联冠军，但这一连胜在2021年国际米兰夺冠后结束。看来博彩市场没有充分认识到尤文图斯的水平在过去的2-3年里真的下降了很多，而且从上个赛季开始!如果他们错过了前四名——以及下赛季的欧冠门票，我一点也不会感到惊讶。目前为止，他们在意甲联赛中取得了比他们应得的积分(xPTS)更多的两分，这实际上是有点幸运的。进球数与预期进球数(xG)相同，但他们的预期失球数(xA)非常幸运，比预期少丢了6球。xPTS, xG和xGA或大多数职业足球投注者通常使用的统计工具，以寻找估值过低或过高的球队，试图在有利可图的比赛上投注，以获得长期利润。而都灵的情况恰恰相反，他们本应该多得4分，多进5球，少丢2球!的确，他们的积分预期比令人失望的尤文图斯还要多!这场德比的主场优势比“普通”比赛略小，但不可低估。

最大和最敏锐的博彩公司在投注限额下，对尤文图斯在这里获胜的赔率较小，但我必须不同意!事实上，我相信博彩公司已经调整了他们的赔率-并没有真正反映他们实际的概率估计(%)。这也是他们经常做的事情，比如在曼联的比赛中。他们的目标通常是确保无论比赛结果如何，他们都能获利——或者至少避免冒太大的风险，如果大多数钱都集中在一支球队身上，就会出现这种风险。尤文图斯是一个强大的品牌，在全球拥有大量的球迷，也有许多著名的球员。这导致大量的人在他们身上下注，即使赔率稍低。尽管我写了关于尤文图斯的所有负面的东西，当然，从纯粹的水平来看，尤文图斯是更好的球队，但我降低了他们的实力评级，从季前赛的分析中可以看出这支球队的纯粹水平。他们排在第5位，都灵排在第9位。然而，尤文图斯在这场比赛中有一长串的伤病:M.阿克摔断了腿，非常重要的F.基耶萨，在2020年欧洲杯上获胜的意大利英雄，去年膝盖受伤，M.德西格利奥大腿受伤，天才和经验丰富的a .迪玛利亚肌肉受伤。此外，豪尔赫膝盖受伤，彼得斯因为肌肉受伤而缺席，法国人博格巴也有膝盖受伤。事实上，尽管缺席了一长串球员的名单——这严重影响了尤文图斯夺冠的机会，但我相信，如果球队输掉这场比赛，55岁的传奇主帅阿莱格里很可能会被解雇。尤文图斯显然缺乏信心，根据我的消息来源，球队内部的气氛，可以理解的，远不是很好。我认为东道主在这里是险胜的，但对于我的球迷和我来说，平局就足够了，连续七次获胜的几率接近70%!我认为这两支进攻有问题的球队之间的比赛比分比博彩市场上的更低，平局的可能性比本联盟的平均水平更高——33%。

这两支球队最近的状态都不太好，都灵在最近的五场比赛中赢了一场，并且打了一场平局。另一方面，尤文图斯在最近的五场比赛中输掉了三场，并且在周二的欧冠比赛中以0:2输给了这支球员总市值低于欧冠标准的小球队，表现非常令人失望。事实上，根据德高望重的德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，他们的球队价值仅为2060万欧元。当然，市场价值有时可能具有误导性，但博彩公司和最优秀的职业足球投注者越来越关注这些数字。足球(球员)市场毕竟是一个全球性的市场。然而，如果两个球员都一样好，其中一个20岁，另一个30岁，年轻的球员，当然有更大的市场价值。在我看来，2060万有点太低了。即便如此。尤文图斯应该赢球——或者至少在对阵海法马卡比这样的球队时取得平局——即使是在远离家乡的地方。海法是一支非常缺乏经验的欧洲顶级足球俱乐部。这是尤文图斯糟糕的表现，尤其是在进攻端，尽管创造了一些不错的得分机会。尤文有5次射门，主队有4次，但射门次数更多——14:11。尤文上周确实在都灵以3-1击败了以色列俱乐部，但他们的表现并不令人信服，因为博彩公司开出了1.40左右的赔率。的确，他们的控球率达到了51%，射门次数超过了3次，但这支实力落后的球队射门次数更多——20次!两支球队都记录了46次危险进攻。尤文在最近的一场意甲比赛中表现不佳，尽管有60%的控球率，他们还是在客场0:2不敌AC米兰。事实上，他们的预期进球数只有0.54 !另一方面，都灵，已经面对了惊人的好那不勒斯，他们在积分榜上一球未输(!)，最近的国米，这些输球我并不担心，因为都灵作为巨大的失败者表现得很好。在最近的一场比赛中，他们本应该在主场战胜恩波利，因为他们创造了2.87个预期进球数，而恩波利的预期进球数只有0.21个。