In my opinion Plzen have really good chances to avoid big loss in today's match up. +2.5 AH on home side looks like the best possible bet here.

In first match between both teams Bayern won 5:0 at home, but they not deserved for such big win: expected goals scored for Bayern 2.43, for Plzen 0.48.

Bayern coming here in bad mood after painful draw 2:2 against Borussia. First time in history of this classic match up they failed to win with 2 goals advantage during the game. Atmosphere in club is nervous. In addition to that Bayern today will play without so many key players: best player in last matches Jamal Musiala (Covid-19), first goalkeeper Manuel Neuer (shoulder issues), key central defender Lucas Hernandez (adductor injury), key left defender Alphonso Davies, key central defender Matthijs de Ligt (adductor issues) and key winger Serge Gnabry (knee issues). It's huge blow for the team and should have very bad impact on their performance today.

Obviously, Plzen doesn't belong to the level where Bayern is, but they were able to score on away against Barcelona and avoided big loss at home against Inter (0:2). I believe they have tools to score against depleted guests defensive formation.

Bayern in current situation shouldn't be that big favorite. They have enough quality to make 3 points, but I don't see for them win with more than two goals margin.

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在我看来，比尔森在今天的比赛中有很好的机会避免大的损失。

在两队的首场比赛中，拜仁在主场以5:0取胜，但他们并不配得上这场大胜:拜仁的预期进球数为2.43，对手为0.48。

在2:2战平博尔西亚之后，拜仁带着糟糕的心情来到这里。在这场经典比赛的历史上，他们第一次在2球优势的情况下输掉比赛。俱乐部的气氛很紧张。除此之外，拜仁今天还将缺席很多关键球员:上一场比赛的最佳球员穆西亚拉(新冠肺炎)，第一门将诺伊尔(肩膀问题)，关键中卫埃尔南德斯(内收肌受伤)，关键左后卫阿方索·戴维斯，关键中卫马提耶斯·德莱特(内收肌问题)和关键边锋格纳布里(膝盖问题)。这对球队来说是巨大的打击，应该会对他们今天的表现产生非常坏的影响。

显然，比尔森并不属于拜仁的水平，但他们能够在客场对阵巴萨的比赛中取得进球，并避免了主场对阵国米(0:2)的惨败。我相信他们有办法在客人防守阵型枯竭的情况下得分。

拜仁在目前的情况下不应该是大热门。他们有足够的能力得到3分，但我不认为他们能在超过2球的情况下赢球。