In my opinion Aston Villa have really good chances to make 3 points in today's match up.

It's very short trip for guests, less than an hour drive by car from Nottingham to Birmingham. I believe Aston Villa have huge mental advantage before this game as they didn't lost in 16 of last 17 matches against Nottingham.

After very poor start of the season, Aston Villa finally found some form. They didn't lost in last 3 matches in a row, during that run they conceded only one goal. Today defensive formation should look even better - key right defender Matt Cash is available again. In last round match they were extremely unlucky to failed to make 3 points against Leeds on away. Match finished with draw 0:0, but Aston Villa really should win: expected goals scored for Aston Villa 2.23, for Leeds 0.37. Aston Villa looks stable at the back, but players like Watkins or Coutinho are very dangerous.

Nottingham have huge problems with stability at the back - they conceded more than two goals in last 4 matches in a row. It's not coincidence - Nottingham opponents already had 136 shots (56 shots on target) - the worst numbers in whole league. In last 6 matches in a row hosts conceded goals outside the box (already 9 such goals in current season). Aston Villa have players with strong shots from long range. In last round they were completed destroyed by Leicester on away (0:4). Morale in team must be on very low level.

Aston Villa stability at the back should make big difference today.

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在我看来，阿斯顿维拉在今天的比赛中有很好的机会拿到3分。

对于客人来说，这是非常短的旅程，从诺丁汉到伯明翰开车不到一个小时。我相信阿斯顿维拉在这场比赛之前有巨大的心理优势，因为他们在最近17场对阵诺丁汉的比赛中有16场没有输。

在赛季开局糟糕之后，阿斯顿维拉终于找回了状态。他们在最近的3场比赛中没有输球，在这期间他们只丢了一个球。今天的防守阵型看起来会更好——右后卫马特-卡什又可以上场了。在上一轮的比赛中，他们在客场对利兹联的比赛中没有得到3分，这是非常不幸的。比赛以0:0平局结束，但阿斯顿维拉真的应该获胜:阿斯顿维拉的预期进球数为2.23，利兹联为0.37。阿斯顿维拉的后防线看起来稳定，但是像沃特金斯和库蒂尼奥这样的球员非常危险。

诺丁汉在后防线的稳定性上有很大的问题——他们在最近4场比赛中连续丢了2球以上。这并不是巧合——诺丁汉的对手已经有了136次射门(56次射正)——这是整个联赛中最差的数字。在过去的6场比赛中，东道主连续在禁区外丢球(本赛季已经丢了9球)。阿斯顿维拉的球员有很强的远射能力。在上一轮比赛中，他们被莱斯特城客场(0:4)彻底消灭。团队的士气一定很低。

阿斯顿维拉在后防线上的稳定会在今天起到很大作用。