Gimnasia La Plata vs Boca Juniors

Gimnasia La Plata welcome Boca Juniors for this Argentinian Liga Profesional round 23 clash at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata Friday morning Beijing time. This league is of decent level by global standards as is – typically for many other South American Leagues – for example the Brazilian Serie A and B and the Colombian Primera A - low-scoring league. I do expect a good-quality match by Argentinian standards here but seeing many goals would be a surprise and I see this clash as more low-scoring than the betting market does. Indeed, none of the hosts’ latest five matches have gone over the 2.5 total goals line. They have unarguably have some offensive problems lately - for example against Tigre on the 25th of September they often lacked pace and creativity in offense and were also too predictable making it easy for Tigre to defend successfully and travel home with a 1-0 away win. Tigre are a quite strong team though so not scoring and losing was not anything to be too embarrassed about. In fact, a draw would have been a justified result in this balanced game.

Luckily for the host they have very solid defense and have conceded just 13 goals so far – the lowest number in this league! Atletico Tucuman who top the standings have allowed 15 goals. It is true that the hosts have been slightly lucky in terms of expected goals allowed though. Even so, the bookies seem to underestimate their defensive capability and Gimnasia La Plata as a team as well. They are not a very big team in this league by financial resources, historical success, media attention or players’ total market value according to a well-known and respected German website Transfermarkt.com and have not been quite at their best lately on the pitch either. These facts probably explain the under-valuation here against one of the two “giants” of Argentinian football Boca Juniors – the other one is River Plate. By raw class the visitors are definitely better as they are a top-3 team and currently occupy the 2nd place in the standings with 42 points. Their goal difference is not very good though 27:22. They have now taken too back to back wins as clear favorites according the bookies – over Quilmes in Copa Argentina 3-2 at a neutral and in their most recent match on the 3rd of this month over disappointing Velez Sarsfield who are the second-last team in this league. Both matches were somewhat balanced, and I would have expected more from Boca Juniors! The hosts have grabbed five points less and are in sixth place and are having a better-than-expected season and I have, as result, raised their power rating that reflects the teams pure class from the preseason analysis quite a bit as the season has progressed. The visitors have not lost a match for a long time and have been good but have now become way too hot on the betting market. They play pretty cautious football away from home especially against good teams like Gimnasia La Plata and just one of their latest five games on the road have seen over two goals. A draw would be enough for my fans and me here with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap option with a big chance of winning as the hosts should be narrow favorites despite not being among the teams with the biggest home advantage.. The hosts are missing three players and Boca Juniors will have to manage without injured Briasco, Figal, Romero, Villa and Zeballos. Vazquez is also out because of a previous red card.

拉普拉塔体操迎战博卡青年，北京时间周五早上在拉普拉塔举行的 Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo 举行的阿根廷职业联赛第 23 轮比赛。按照全球标准，这个联赛的水平相当不错——通常是许多其他南美联赛——例如巴西甲级联赛和乙级联赛以及哥伦比亚甲级联赛——低分联赛。我确实预计这会是一场得分偏低的比赛，出现很多进球会令人惊讶，而且我认为这场比赛的进球数会更低。事实上，主队最近的五场比赛都没有超过 2.5 个总进球数。毫无疑问，他们最近在进攻端遇到了一些问题——例如在 9 月 25 日对阵泰格勒的比赛中，他们在进攻中经常缺乏节奏和创造力，而且太容易预测，这让泰格勒很容易成功防守并以 1-0 在客场胜利而归。 Tigre是一支相当强大的球队，所以不得分和输球也不算什么尴尬。事实上，在这场平衡的比赛中，平局本来是合理的结果。

对主队来说幸运的是，他们的防守非常稳固，到目前为止只丢了 13 个球——这个数字是联盟中最低的！位居榜首的图库曼竞技队已经丢了15个球。确实，主队的预期进球有点幸运。即便如此，博彩公司似乎也低估了他们的防守能力以及 Gimnasia La Plata 作为一个团队。根据知名且受人尊敬的德国网站 Transfermarkt.com 的数据，从财力、历史成功、媒体关注度或球员总市值来看，他们在联盟中并不是一支非常强大的球队，而且最近在球场上的状态也不是很好任何一个。这些事实可能解释了这里对阿根廷足球博卡青年队的两个“巨人”之一的低估 - 另一个是河床。按原始级别来看，客队肯定更好，因为他们是前三名的球队，目前以 42 分排名第二。他们的目标差距不是很大虽然 27:22 很好。根据博彩公司的说法，他们现在已经将背靠背的胜利作为明显的最爱——在阿根廷杯中以 3-2 击败奎尔姆斯，在本月 3 日的最近一场比赛中，他们击败了倒数第二的萨斯菲尔德令人失望的球队在这个联盟中。两场比赛都有些平衡，我对博卡青年队的期望更高！东道主少拿了 5 分，排在第六位，而且本赛季的表现好于预期，因此我提高了他们的实力等级，这反映了季前赛分析中球队的纯粹水平，因为赛季有进步了。客队很长时间没有输过一场比赛，而且表现不错，但现在在博彩市场上变得太热了。他们在客场踢得非常谨慎，尤其是在对阵吉姆纳西亚拉普拉塔这样的强队时，他们最近的五场客场比赛中只有一场超过了两个进球。平局就足够了，北单推荐 +0.5 让分选项，获胜的机会很大，因为尽管不是拥有最大主场优势的球队之一，但主队应该是赢球的大热门。主动缺少三名球员，博卡青年队将缺少受伤的布里亚斯科、菲加尔的情况下进行管理、罗梅罗、比利亚和泽巴洛斯。巴斯克斯也因为之前的一张红牌而停赛。