In my opinion Ceara have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

Ceara have good mental advantage before today's game as they didn't lost in last 4 consecutive matches against Coritiba.

Very important match for both teams as they are just above relegation zone in league table.

I don't trust for Coritiba - they lost 6 of last 8 matches. Ok, they won last two consecutive home matches, but they not played much better than opponents in those matches. In win against Avai: expected goals scored for Coritiba 1.09, for Avai 1.49. In win against Atletico GO: expected goals scored for Coritiba 1.45, for Atletico 1.44. If You look on the bigger picture, their results at home looks better than really should. Coritiba conceded 12 goals in 13 home league matches, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 20.28 - it's huge difference.

Without any shadow of doubt currently Ceara looks much more solid - they didn't lost in 4 of last 5 matches and they were able to avoid loss on away against strong Flamengo. Ceara is super solid on away - they didn't lost in 10 of 13 away league matches so far and their results should look even better. They scored 13 goals in 13 away league matches, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 18.92!

On those circumstances I don't see Coritiba as a favorite in this game. Very important game and I'm pretty sure Coritiba will accept one point with smile.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在我看来，塞亚拉有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少得一分。

塞亚拉在今天的比赛前有很好的心理优势，因为他们在最近连续4场对阵科里提巴的比赛中没有失利。

这对两支球队来说都是非常重要的比赛，因为他们在联赛积分榜上仅高于降级区。

我不相信科里蒂巴，他们在最近的8场比赛中输了6场。好吧，他们在过去的两场主场比赛中都赢了，但是他们并没有比对手踢得好多少。在战胜阿维的比赛中:科里蒂巴的预期进球数为1.09，阿维为1.49。在战胜马竞的比赛中:科里蒂巴的预期进球数为1.45，马竞的预期进球数为1.44。如果你从大局上看，他们在主场的成绩看起来比实际情况要好。科里蒂巴在13场主场联赛中丢了12球，但根据预期丢球模型，他们应该丢20.28球——这是巨大的差距。

毫无疑问，目前塞亚拉看起来更加稳固——他们在最近5场比赛中有4场没有输，他们能够在客场对阵强大的弗拉门戈时避免失利。塞亚拉在客场的表现非常稳定，他们目前在13场客场比赛中有10场没有输，他们的成绩应该会更好。他们在13场客场联赛中打进13球，但根据预期进球数模型，他们应该打进18.92球!

在这种情况下，我不认为科里蒂巴是这场比赛的宠儿。这是一场非常重要的比赛，我很肯定科里蒂巴会微笑着接受一分。