Gibraltar VS Georgia

Gibraltar challenge Georgia in this UEFA Nations League League C round 6 clash at Victoria Stadium in Gibraltar, a small country next to Spain. This is the final round and Georgia have already won the group as they have 13 points to their account North Macedonia in the 2nd place have grabbed seven points. Georgia’s a goal difference is 14:2. As Georgia have nothing to play for here I expect possibly even heavy rotating from the visitors’ manager. This means their level will drop significantly! I am also not quite convinced if the Georgians are 100% motivated here against a lowly opponent. Surely, they will at least try to avoid injuries.. Even, so there is no doubt about the fact that they are very big favorites here and I would definitely be a little surprised if they Gibraltar were to take points here. However, the +2.5 goals’ handicap is a totally different story and the chance of the hosts avoiding a loss by more than two goals’ difference and bringing my fans and me the 4th winner in a row is 67%. Let’s not forget that the hosts have not lost any of their most recent five home games by more than a gap of two goals. In fact, they have taken three draws from these five matches! Away from home they are a pretty useless team though, but the home fans really boost them – even despite the fact that there will not be a massive number of people at the stadium.

Despite the great results Georgia have achieved in their recent matches they are not a big football country. They have been way too “hot” on the betting market. Indeed, their FIFA ranking is 82th.. Take for example their most recent match where they faced North Macedonia at home as clear favorites according to the bookies – priced around 2.10 to win. Well, the did not deserve the win as the visitors had almost 60% ball possession and created much more goal attempts (19-8), shots on target (6-2), passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Before this they were disappointing at home against declining Bulgaria as very clear favorite - it was a goalless draw. Gibraltar also played a draw in their most recent home match – 1-1 early last summer. They were massive underdogs but once again did better than the bookies estimated in front of their countrymen. 1-3 or 0-2 are probable final scores here.