In my opinion Southampton have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

Southampton have really solid record against Aston Villa in Premier League as they didn't lost in 11 of last 14 matches against them. Southampton didn't lost in 6 of last 7 matches at Villa Park so I don't see them as so big underdog in this game.

Southampton coming to this game with only one absence - young midfielder Lavia is unavailable on, but Diallo is able to replace him without any drop of quality. On the other hand Aston Villa have serious squad problems, especially at the back - first goalkeeper Martinez is doubtful, same as key striker Watkins. In addition to that two key defenders Matty Cash and Diego Carlos are unavailable today, same as new central defender Bednarek. That really can make big difference today.

Aston Villa conceded at least one goal in last 11 league matches in a row and I see continuation of that streak today. Southampton scored more than one goal in 3 of 6 matches in current season (against Leeds, Leicester and Chelsea). They failed to score against Manchester United (expected goals scored 1.45) and Wolves (expected goals scored 1.20), but in this matches they still looked very dangerous in attack.

Southampton also improved at the back - new central defenders pair Salisu/Bella-Kotchap works really well. They played 4 matches together and in those matches Southampton had 3.59 expected goals conceded (they played against Chelsea or Manchester United) so it's really good result. I don't see easy goals for hosts today - Aston Villa looks dreadful in offense so far: only Bournemouth had less shots and lower expected goals scored number in current season than hosts of today's match up.

I see excellent value on away side here.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在我看来，南安普顿有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少得一分。

南安普顿在英超对阵阿斯顿维拉的比赛中有着非常稳定的记录，因为他们在过去14场对阵阿斯顿维拉的比赛中有11场没有输过。南安普顿最近在维拉公园球场的7场比赛中有6场没有输，所以我不认为他们在这场比赛中处于劣势。

南安普顿在这场比赛中只有一个人缺席——年轻的中场拉维亚无法上场，但是迪亚洛可以在没有任何下降的情况下替换他。另一方面，阿斯顿维拉有严重的阵容问题，特别是在后防线上——第一门将马丁内斯被怀疑，主力前锋沃特金斯也是如此。除了两名关键后卫马蒂·卡什和迭戈·卡洛斯今天缺阵之外，新中卫贝德纳里克也是如此。这对今天来说真的很重要。

阿斯顿维拉在过去的11场联赛中至少丢了一个球，我认为今天他们还会继续丢球。南安普顿在本赛季的6场比赛中有3场进球超过1球(对阵利兹、莱斯特和切尔西)。他们在对阵曼联(预期进球数为1.45)和狼队(预期进球数为1.20)的比赛中都没有进球，但在这场比赛中，他们在进攻端看起来仍然非常危险。

南安普顿在后防线上也有所改进，新的中卫组合萨利苏/贝拉-科查的表现非常出色。他们一起打了4场比赛，在这些比赛中南安普顿的预期失球是3.59个(他们和切尔西或曼联打过球)，所以这真的是一个很好的结果。我认为今天的主队进球并不容易——阿斯顿维拉目前看起来进攻很糟糕:只有伯恩茅斯本赛季射门次数和预期进球数比今天比赛的主队少。

我在这边看到了很好的价值。