Tombense VS Brusque

Tombense host Brusque for this Brazilian Serie B round 27 clash Estádio Soares de Azevedo in Minas Gerais Wednesday morning Beijing time. This is a pretty okay league by global standards, but the level is still very clearly lower than that of Serie A. Along many other South American leagues, especially Argentinian Liga Pro and Colombian Primera A this is a very low-scoring league and most matches are not overly entertaining to watch.. Even 0-0 would surely not be a surprise here as Brusque almost always play cautious, defensive football away from home. Only one of their most recent 10 matches have gone over the 2.5 goals total line. I definitely l see the match as more low scoring than the betting market does. The probability of a draw is high - 35%. This would suit my fans and me bringing a winner with the +0.5 goals handicap option on the visitors. The chance of winning is 72%. Indeed, I cannot agree with the bookies here - the hosts being the favorites. The odds on Brusque have being going down in recent hours though as smart money is piling up on the visitors. In my opinion there is no doubt about the fact the visitors are the favorites here - but not clear of course with a 37% chance of taking all three points.. Offensively the teams are equal in my view but Brusque have a much more solid defense despite allowing just once goal less than Tombense – 24. They have better defensive structure and are much better at relieving the pressure created by the opponent. The hosts currently occupy the 9th place in standings with 36 points but have been clearly lucky in terms of expected goals allowed as well as expected points grabbing some six more points than they would have deserved. Both of these are statistical tools commonly used by almost all professional football bettors to spot potentially under – or of course over-valued teams as well in an attempt to find lucrative matches to bet on! Brusque have 28 points in the pocket but would have deserved a little more and will most probably climb up the standings as the season progresses.

Neither team are in good form at the moment winning just one of their latest five games.. Tombense were weak in their most recent match losing to the second-last team in this league Guarani losing1-2 away from home. The ball possession was almost 50-50% but Guarani created more in expected goals and recorded more scoring attempts, shots on goal attacks and dangerous attacks. Before this they took a massively undeserved 1-0 home win over good team Sport Recife 1-0 in a rather boring and low-level battle. The visitors had almost 60% ball possession as well as more attacks, passes, completed passes attacks and especially dangerous attacks - 35-67. If they do not improve or get lucky, they will probably not win. Brusque, on the other hand, dominated a pretty dangerous team Londrina a few days ago but still lost 0-1 despite having 73% ball possession and creating whopping 24 scoring attempts. They also recorded 2.48 in expected goals – Londrina’s number was just 0.67. Brusque also had much more shots on target, passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. This loss probably affects the odds on the betting market too much here. Before this they were not great against Chapecoense-SC though and lost 1-0 away from home but a draw would not have been an unjustified result.

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北京时间周三上午，巴西乙级联赛第27轮比赛在米纳斯吉拉斯举行，汤本斯主场迎战布鲁克斯Estádio。以全球标准来看，这是一个相当不错的联赛，但水平仍然明显低于意甲。其他许多南美联赛，尤其是阿根廷职业联赛和哥伦比亚甲级联赛，这是一个得分非常低的联赛，大多数比赛都没有太多的观感。即使是0-0也不会让人感到意外，因为布鲁克斯在客场几乎总是踢着谨慎的防守足球。在他们最近的10场比赛中，只有一场的进球数超过了2.5个。我绝对认为这场比赛比博彩市场的得分更低。平局的概率很高- 35%。这将适合我的球迷和我带来一个赢家与+0.5球的障碍选项的客队。获胜的几率是72%。事实上，我不同意博彩公司的说法——东道主是最受欢迎的球队。近几个小时来，“唐斯克”的赔率一直在下降，因为聪明的投资者纷纷把钱押在游客身上。在我看来，毫无疑问，客队是这里的热门，但不清楚的是，他们有37%的机会拿到所有的三分。在我看来，两队在进攻端实力相当，但唐斯克的防守更加稳固，尽管他只比汤本斯少丢了一个球——24球。他们有更好的防守结构，更善于缓解对手造成的压力。东道主目前以36分占据了积分榜的第9位，但很明显，从被允许的预期进球和预期积分来看，他们是幸运的，比他们应得的多拿了6分。这两种统计工具都是几乎所有职业足球打赌者普遍使用的，以发现潜在的低估或当然高估球队，以及试图找到有利可图的比赛押注!唐斯克已经拿到了28分，但他应该得到更多，随着赛季的推进，他很有可能会爬上积分榜。

两支球队目前状态都不佳，最近五场比赛都只赢了一场。汤本斯在最近的一场比赛中很弱，输给了联赛倒数第二的球队，瓜拉尼客场1-2输掉了比赛。控球率几乎是50% -50%，但瓜拉尼创造了更多的预期进球，并记录了更多的射门、进球进攻和危险的进攻。在此之前，他们在一场相当无聊和低级的战斗中，在主场1-0战胜了一支优秀的球队累西腓。客队的控球率接近60%，进攻、传球、完成的传球进攻，尤其是危险的进攻——35比67。如果他们没有进步或者运气不好，他们可能不会赢。另一方面，唐斯克在几天前统治了一支相当危险的球队隆德里纳，但尽管他有73%的控球率，并创造了惊人的24次得分机会，但还是0-1输了。他们的预期进球数也达到了2.48个，而隆德里纳的数字只有0.67个。布鲁克斯也有更多的射门、传球、完成传球、攻击和危险的攻击。这一损失可能对这里的博彩市场的赔率影响太大了。在此之前，他们在对阵沙佩科恩斯- sc的比赛中表现不佳，客场0 - 1输掉了比赛，但平局并不是一个不公平的结果。