Sampaio Correa VS Cruzeiro

Sampaio Correa host Cruzeiro for this Brazilian Serie B clash at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís Wednesday morning Beijing time. This is a pretty okay league by global standards, but the level is still a lot lower than that of Serie A, the first tier. Similarly to many other South American leagues high scoring matches are rare. 0-0 would surely be a surprise here as Cruzeiro do have very dangerous strikers and other offensive players and the host notmally score at home as well.. However, I still see the match as more low scoring than the betting market does. Cruzeiro have scored 36 goals so far – the highest number in this league – but away from home they have found the bet once per match on average. Sampaio Correa, on the other hand, normally aim at controlling the events on the pitch at home but Cruzeiro are the best team in this league – the difference to Bahia (2nd), Gremio (3rd) and Vasco (4th) is pretty small by raw class.. Taking this into account I expect them to be more cautious and defensive here. I draw would probably not be a disappointment for either team. The probability of this result is pretty high – 34%. This would be enough to bring my fans and me a winner with the +0.5 goals handicap on the hosts. The chance of winning is 66%. Indeed, there is no doubt about the fact the visitors are the favorites here - .but only narrow in my opinion. Offensively they are only marginally better than Sampaio Correa but do have a much more solid defense but the hosts can improve in this area too. They currently top the standings with 57 points but have been very lucky in terms of expected goals allowed as well as expected points grabbing some four more points than they would have deserved. Both of these are statistical tools commonly used by professional football bettors to spot potentially under – or of course over-valued teams as well in an attempt to find lucrative matches to bet on.

Both teams are in fine form at the moment and we can expect a good-level match today. The hosts have lost just one of their latest five matches – the visitors have only draws, and wins in their five most recent matches. The only loss for the host came on the 21st of this month 1-2 in a very balanced match against CRB. They currently occupy the 10th place in the standings with 34 points and a score difference of 30:28 but would have deserved three more points in terms of expected points. They have been amazingly strong in front of enthusiastic fans! They have lost just one of their latest 15 home games winning 12 of these. What a record! Their home goal difference is 25:8. Cruzeiro did crush Nautico 4-0 a few days ago but before this they were not that great and played two draws against Gremio and Chapecoense-SC and looked a bit vulnerable in defense in both games。

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周三上午São Luís，桑帕约·科雷亚将在Estádio Governador João Castelo主场迎战克鲁塞罗。以全球标准来看，这是一个相当不错的联赛，但水平仍然比第一梯队意甲低很多。与许多其他南美联赛类似，高得分比赛是罕见的。0-0在克鲁塞罗肯定会是一个惊喜，因为克鲁塞罗有非常危险的前锋和其他进攻球员，东道主在主场通常也不会进球。然而，我仍然认为这场比赛比博彩市场的得分更低。克鲁塞罗到目前为止已经打进了36个进球，是这个联赛的最高数字，但是在客场他们平均每场比赛都有一次进球。另一方面，桑帕约-科雷亚，通常旨在控制主场的比赛，但克鲁塞罗是这个联赛中最好的球队，与巴伊亚(第2)，格雷米奥(第3)和瓦斯科(第4)的差距是非常小的。考虑到这一点，我希望他们在这里更加谨慎和防御。我的平局可能不会让两支球队失望。这个结果的概率很高——34%。这足以让我和我的球迷以+0.5的劣势战胜东道主。获胜的几率是66%。的确，游客是这里最受欢迎的，这一点是毫无疑问的——但在我看来只是狭隘的。在进攻端，他们只比桑帕约·科雷亚略胜一筹，但他们的防守确实更稳固，但东道主在这方面也可以改进。他们目前以57分高居积分榜榜首，但在预期进球数和预期积分方面，他们非常幸运，比他们应得的多拿了4分。这两种统计工具都是职业足球投注者普遍使用的，他们利用这些工具来发现潜在的低估(当然也包括高估)的球队，试图找到有利可图的比赛进行押注。

两支球队目前状态都很好，我们可以期待今天的比赛。东道主在最近的五场比赛中只输掉了一场，而客队在最近的五场比赛中只取得了平局和胜利。东道主唯一的一次失利是在本月21日对阵CRB的一场非常平衡的比赛中以1比2落败。他们目前以34分和30:28的比分排在积分榜的第10位，但如果按照预期积分计算，他们应该再得3分。他们在热情的球迷面前表现得惊人的强大!他们在最近的15场主场比赛中只输了一场，其中12场赢了。什么一个记录!他们的主场净胜球是25:8。克鲁塞罗在几天前确实4-0击败了诺提科，但在此之前，他们并不是那么伟大，在对阵格雷米奥和沙佩科恩斯- sc的两场比赛中都踢平了，在防守上看起来有点脆弱。