FC Cartagena VS Real Zaragoza

Cartagena welcome Zaragoza for this Spanish Segunda Division battle at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova early Saturday morning Beijing time. A balanced and pretty high-level match by the second tier standards of Spanish football is on the cards here. Somewhat weirdly in my opinion the betting market see the hosts as favorites. I disagree and would rate Zaragoza as narrow favorites! Zaragoza often play quite cautious, defensive football and I expect the same here – unless the hosts score an early goal and Zaragoza have to risk it to take at least a point. Indeed, I see this match as more low-scoring than the betting market does, and the probability of a draw is higher than on average in this league – 33%. This result would be enough for my fans and me to win yet another bet on Spanish football. The chance of the visitors not losing is 72%.

Last season Cartagena over-performed taking in to account the team’s potential and were quite lucky in many matches.. They grabbed a total of 60 points and had a goal difference of 63:57 and finished in the 9th place - higher than I, the betting market, most football analysts and probably even their fans would have expected. I would be surprised if their level did not drop this season. Interestingly they won and lost 18 matches but played just six draws. They took all three points in quite a few balanced matches which in part explains the high number of points. Zaragoza, on the other hand, disappointed me finishing in 9th position but I am expecting a better season from this team that has played at the first tier in the past and do have the players and financial resources finish in top 6. According to a well-known and respected German website Transfermarkt.com their players’ total market value is almost 26 million euros – which is still too low in my view and 32-33 million would be the fair number. The hosts’ squad is valued at just around 12 million which is a low number for this league. Cartagena have started the league with one win and one loss and have not really excited me on the pitch. Zaragoza have played two goalless draws but would have deserved a win against Levante at home after 56% ball possession and creating much more scoring attempts and shots on target (6-1) Levante were relegated after last season and are a dangerous team in this league. Another 0-0 is quite possible here!