Home win without any doubt
2022-08-20

Wesley

外籍分析师

日职

08/20 18:00

已完赛

解读理由:

Although they are only in fifth place in the table, Hiroshima, in my opinion, is the only team that can fight with Yokohama M. for the title this year in Japan. They just beat Yokohama twice in a row in the Japan Cup, first, they won in Hiroshima by 3-1 and then they played a routine game in the second leg and triumphed again this time with 2-1. How strong the momentum is and how good the atmosphere in the locker room is, is best shown by the fact that, apart from the fact that they won four in a row, the Hiroshima players also beat the leader twice in those four wins, beat the second-placed Kashima 2-0 away from home and third-placed Kashiwa with 3-2 also away!!! There is no doubt that the team is on the rise, and German expert Michael Skibbe has great credit for that. His team plays fast and ultra-attacking football, and the opposing team's defences are under constant pressure. Regarding xG (expected goals), Hiroshima is ranked very well, they are second in the league behind Yokohama M., while their stadium also has the second best xG (1.87), which speaks volumes for the strength of this team. As for the visitors, their xG away from home is very poor, only Fukuoka and Kyoto have worse xG when playing away from their stadium. The team with the worst xGA (Goals Expected Against) when playing at home this season is Gamba Osaka, who is expected to concede 1.84 goals per game in front of their own fans. This parameter speaks volumes for how bad the visitors' defence is this season. When we add to all that tomorrow they will play against the second best "home" team in the league, I think that anything but the loss of Gamba Osaka would be a big surprise. The home team win odds are currently 1.44 and I think that's a decent odds. As for the -1.5 Asian handicap, it is very certain that Hiroshima should win this game without major problems, 2-0 or 3-0.


My prediction;

Outcome: Hiroshima to win

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