Londrina VS Bahia

Londrina host Bahia for this Brazil Serie B round 25 clash at Estádio do Café in Londrina. This is the second tier of Brazilian football and is of quite good quality by global standard. Similarly to many other South American leagues it is a low-scoring league and most teams play well-organized football. Here the goal expectancy is also low. In fact, I see this match as even more low-scoring than the betting market does. Only one of both teams’ matches 10 matches have gone over the 2.5 goal total line. The chance of a draw is higher than on average in Serie B – 34%. The chance of Londrina not losing is 66%. The betting market sees the visitors as solod favorites here, but I simply do not agree. The hosts are missing Augusto, Cacho, Mossoro, Samuel Santos and Victor Souza which of course is not an optimal situation, but the absentees are perhaps given too much emphasis here. The visitors are without Didi and Luiz Otavia. For me this a coin-toss – a 50-50% match. Let’s take a closer look..

The home advantage is massive here – bigger than normally. Londrina have loud and enthusiastic fans and have lost two of their latest 15 home matches! By raw class Bahia or of course better. The have an edge over the hosts in every area of the game. Defense is the only area where the edge is clear though. Indeed, Bahia have allowed just 13 goals so far. Only Cruzeiro and Greamio have conceded less. Bahia currently occupy the second place in the standings with a total of 42 points and have scored. However, they are in the 4th place in my power rating that illustrate the teams’ pure class. In terms of expected points, they have been a little lucky this season and would have deserved 40.23 points. They were solid in their most recent match at home beating Ituano, a mediocre team 2-0. They were clear favorites in this match according to the betting market - priced around 1.65 by the bookies. Before this I was very disappointed on them as they lost to Sampaio Correa 0-2 away from home. They did control the match - recording 63% ball possession but lacked creativity - and perhaps some luck too – in offense. They recorded just two shots on goal and were slim favorites in this match. Londrina have lost just one of their latest six games and were okay in four days ago when visiting Vila Nova. They defended a 0-0 draw as clear underdogs. Before this they lost to Cruzeiro 1-2 at home. However, Cruzeiro top the standings and the gap to Bahia is 10 points, so this loss does not worry me ahead of this match.