Dalkurd vs Örgryte

Dalkurd host Örgryte for this Swedish Superettan round 19 clash at Studenternas IP in Uppsala Saturday evening Beijing time. This is the second tier of Swedish football and is not of high level by European standard. Neither of the two teams are having a particularly strong season so far. Indeed, Dalkurd currently occupy the 14th place in the standings with 18 points to their account and have a goal difference of 16:29. They were promoted to Superettan for this season and do not seem to get much respect in the betting market.. They also get less media coverage – at least in Sweden – than many other teams. It is true that they do not have any big names in the club but perform better on the pitch than the player list or players’ total market would indicate. In terms of expected points, they have been slightly unlucky this season and would have deserved three points. Their biggest weakness almost throughout the whole season has been scoring enough goals. A high-scoring match is not probable here either but Örgryte have a shaky defense and they have allowed 30 goals. Dalkurd have been pretty goof form lately despite losing to Halmstad 1-3 last week away from home. They did not have much of a chance in that match, but we must remember that they were massive underdogs in this match in the betting market. Indeed, Halmastad have been strong this season and top the standings with 41 points to their account. Before this match they beat Norrby 2-1, took a point away from home from a dangerous team Eskilstuna and beat Jongkoping. Dalkurd should be narrow favorites with a 42% chance of winning in front of loyal fans.

The main rationale behind this bet is, however, to go against over-valued Örgryte. They took quite a lucky 1-0 away win in their most recent match over Östers who had much more ball possession, goal attempts and dangerous attacks. Before this they played a 2-2 home draw against Eskilstuna who dominated the match for most of the 90 min creating much more in expected goals and recording more (4-16) goal attempts and shots on target (2-7). Before this they took yet another lucky point from Eskilstuna through a 0-0 draw. According to a respected German website, Transfermarkt.com Örgryte’s squad is valued at over three million euros - the fair number would be some 2.40 million. Five players are over-valued in my view.. As for the hosts the listed players’ total market is 2.91 million which is surely too low. The players’ total market value is a surprisingly good indicator of a team’s level on the pitch.. However, if two players are equally good - and one of them is 25 years old and the other one is 35 - the younger player is, of course, much more valuable.. Indeed, a team’s total market value can also be misleading.. Even so, bettors as well as bookies pay more and more attention to this number.

On the 26th of July the visitors were okay at home against Västerås. It was balanced match and a 1-1 draw. Västerås are a rather lowly team though. Before this, however, they were, on very lucky to avoid losing at home against Brommapojkarna who dominated the match for the most of the 90 minutes recording much more in expected goals. Indeed, they recorded 55% ball possession and created much more shots on target (7-2) and goals attempts. They also had more attacks and dangerous attacks. The betting market seems to put too much emphasis on Örgryte’s “promising” latest results and their potential, but I would have to see real improvement on the pitch to raise their power rating that illustrates the teams’ pure class. At the moment they are in the 15th place in the league table – second last that is with just 17 points to their account. Their goal difference is also bad.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周六晚，在乌普萨拉举行的瑞典Superettan第19轮比赛中，Dalkurd主办Örgryte。这是瑞典足球的第二梯队，以欧洲的标准来衡量并不算高水平。到目前为止，这两支球队的赛季表现都不是特别好。事实上，达尔库德目前以18分排名第14位，净胜球为16:29。他们本赛季被提升到Superettan，似乎在博彩市场上没有得到太多尊重。他们得到的媒体报道也比其他球队少——至少在瑞典是这样。的确，他们在俱乐部里没有什么大牌球星，但他们在球场上的表现比球员名单或球员市场上的表现要更好。在期望得分方面，他们本赛季有点不走运，本应该得到3分。他们整个赛季最大的弱点就是进足够多的球。一场高得分的比赛也不太可能，但是Örgryte的防守很不稳定，他们已经丢了30个球。尽管上周客场1-3输给了霍尔姆斯塔德，但达尔库德最近表现得相当糟糕。他们在那场比赛中没有太大的机会，但我们必须记住，在这场比赛中，他们在博彩市场中处于极大的劣势。的确，哈尔马斯塔德本赛季表现强劲，以41分高居榜首。在这场比赛之前，他们2-1击败了诺比，从危险的埃斯基尔斯蒂纳手中拿走了一分，并击败了宗科平。在忠实的粉丝面前，达尔库德应该只有42%的获胜机会。

不过，这种押注背后的主要理由是，不看好估值过高的Örgryte。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场1-0战胜了拥有更多控球权、进球机会和危险进攻的Östers。在此之前，他们在主场2-2战平埃斯基尔斯蒂纳。埃斯基尔斯蒂纳在90分钟的大部分时间里主宰了比赛，创造了更多的预期进球，并记录了更多的射门(4-16)和射正(2-7)。在此之前，他们以0比0战平埃斯基尔斯蒂纳，又从他那里获得了一分。根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com Örgryte的消息，这支球队的身价超过300万欧元，公平的数字应该是240万欧元。在我看来，有5个玩家被高估了。至于主机，上市玩家的总市场是291万，这肯定是太低了。球员的总市值是一支球队在球场上水平的一个很好的指标。然而，如果两名球员同样优秀——其中一名25岁，另一名35岁——年轻的球员当然更有价值。事实上，一个团队的总市值也可能是误导。即便如此，投注者和博彩公司也越来越关注这个数字。

7月26日，客队在主场迎战Västerås，一切顺利。这是一场势均力敌的比赛，双方1比1战平。Västerås是一个相当低级的团队。然而，在此之前，他们非常幸运地避免了在主场输给布罗马波伊卡纳，后者在90分钟的大部分时间里主宰了比赛，创造了更多的预期进球。事实上，他们的控球率达到了55%，并且创造了更多的射正机会(7-2)和射门机会。他们也有更多的攻击和危险的攻击。博彩市场似乎过于强调Örgryte的“有前途”的最新结果和他们的潜力，但我必须看到球场上的真正改善，以提高他们的力量评级，说明球队的纯阶级。目前他们在积分榜上排名第15位，倒数第二，他们只拿到了17分。他们的净胜球也很差。