AZ Alkmaar vs Dundee United

AZ Alkmaar host Dundee United at AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar for this UEFA Conference League qualification 2nd leg. The hosts are a Dutch club – the visitors come from Scotland. Stakes are substantial as qualifying for the group phase would bring millions of euros in prize money. Both teams, a bit surprisingly, still have a true chance of making it to the final round of qualification as last week in Scotland was a surprising 1-0 win for Dundee. However, I will not be fooled by this result ahead of this match. Indeed, I would not be too worried for the hosts situation here..

The difference in pure class between these two teams is bigger than the odds reflect. Yes, I am of course aware that the hosts’ key attacking player Jesper Karlsson isn't available in this match and have taken this factor into account. However, AZ Alkmaar have big squad full of very talented, especially offensively, mainly young players from several countries. The squad’s average is just 23 years. I, in fact, did not even lower the hosts’ power rating that illustrates the teams’ pure class a bit after the first leg. However, it seems that the bookies have heavily over-reacted to that match - let’s take advantage of this! Dundee United’s defense had a more solid structure and better level overall than I, or probably anyone - would have expected as the Dutch side were priced below 1.50 to win in the betting market.. Offensively Dundee did not truly convince me despite recording a respectable six scoring attempts – Alkmaar had 13. I would be extremely surprised if the hosts failed to win here and the chance of them winning be at least two goals’ margin is 68%

Home advantage is almost always massive in international club defense and this match is not different. Alkmaar have very good fans at the stadium today! Scottish teams, even other clubs than Rangers and Celtic, often achieve pretty good results at home in UEFA’s club competitions but struggle away from home. The Dutch Eredivisie is not top league as whole by European standards but the best clubs, especially Ajax are very good. Even so, the level is much higher than that of Scottish Premiership which is pretty poor behind the two dominant clubs from Glasgow - Rangers and Celtic. Dundee are not even close to their level. In their most recent match Dundee were disappointing losing 0-1 at home to a lowly teams Livingston as favorites according to the bookies. Alkmaar, on the other hand, dominated Go Ahead Eagles at home winning 2-0.