Lech Poznan vs Vikingur

Lech welcome Vikingur at Stadion Miejski for this UEFA Conference League qualification 2nd leg. The hosts are a Polish club – the visitors come from the small island of Iceland. Stakes are big as qualifying for the group phase would bring millions of euros in prize money. Both teams have a true chance of making it to the final round of qualification as last week at Víkingsvöllur in Reykjavík was a surprising 1-0 win for the Icelandic side! However, I will not be fooled by this. Indeed, I would not be too worried for the hosts situation here. The difference in raw class between these two teams is massive. I did lower the hosts’ power rating that illustrates the teams’ pure class a bit after the clash though. However, it seems that the bookies have heavily over-reacted to the first leg. Vikingur’s defense had a more solid structure and level overall than I would have expected – offensively they did not really convince me despite recording 10 scoring attempts. I would be very surprised if the hosts failed to win here and the chance of them winning be at least two goals’ margin is 59%

Home advantage is almost always massive in international club competitions and for Polish teams playing at home is even more important than for teams from some other countries. Icelandic teams have taken many surprising, even shocking wins their island in European club competitions in recent years - only to get heavily beaten away from home even by a lot worse teams than Lech Poznan! We must that the Polish Ekstraklasa is from on another planet than the lowly Icelandic first tier, Besta-Deild Karla. Vikingur do not even top the standings in this league at the moment.. Iceland do have a decent national team but the best Icelandic players do not play at their domestic league. The reigning Polish champions have already crushed Dinamo Batumi 5-0 and also beat very dangerous team Qarabag 1-0 at home this summer in UEFA’s competitions. Qarabag actually have a good chance to even qualify for the Champions League group phase! Lech had big difficulties with their offensive game in Reykjavik but at home in front of very loud fans at a pitch that is quite different fron the one in Reaykjavik I expect them to return to their normal level. They were indeed disappointing in the first leg – not denying that - but still recorded more attacks and dangerous attacks than Vikingur. The visitor on the other hand played perhaps their best match of the season. However, four days ago they failed to beat a lowly team Fram in away from home and looked very vulnerable in defense. It was 3-3 draw.