SJK vs AC Oulu

SJK host AC Oulu for this Finnish Veikkausliiga clash at OmaSP Stadion late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the highest tier of Finnish football and the level by European standards is not very high.. However, my fans and I have done very well betting on Finnish football - Veikkausliiga, Ykkönen and Finnish Cup. Bookies seem to often be quite lost with their odds on Veikkausliiga, especially several hours before the match starts. As early as possible is often the best time to place the bet(s) and Finnish football in particular - even keeping in mind the fact the there is some uncertainty in terms of (starting) lineups. Just by taking a look at the standings the pick on SJK to win may seem a bit weird for some of my fans but once again I will not be fooled by the league table! The hosts have a 59% chanced to win this game. Let’s take a closer look..

Indeed, the visitors currently occupy the 4th place in the standings with respectable 24 points to their account. Their goal difference is not too goo though – 22:22. They have been better than I would have estimated in my preseason analysis, and I believe many football analysts as well as professional football bettors have been positively surprised by their performances so far in Veikkausliiga. In the Finnish Cup they were quite disappointing though and were ousted by a small team, JäPS who play in Ykkönen - and are a mediocre team there.. Oulu have been quite erratic this season as a whole. On a good day they can certainly beat anyone – for example the mighty HJK in Helsinki, but they can on a bad day they are hopelessly bad. Indeed, on the second of this month they got destroyed by a mediocre team VPS from Vaasa at home. The final score, amazingly, was 0-6! I suspect that the overvaluation in the betting market is mainly explained by two things. Firstly, they have grabbed some four points more than they would have deserved in terms of expected points. This is statistic commonly used by professional bettors to identify teams that, at a high certainty, are either under- or over-valued by the bookies. Oulu have been effective making the most of their scoring chances, but this will not continue forever. Secondly, the win over HJK got quite a lot of media attention and bettors and bookies still remember the match (too) well. Interestingly, Oulu have loaned one of their key players, Yaghoubi, a talented but volatile guy of Afghani descent, to SJK for the rest of the season! The reason given out in the media was “internal differences” - whatever that means specifically.. He was far from his best level this season but losing him is still a major blow for AC Oulu.

SJK, on the other hand, seem to repeat the pattern from last season: A very slow start to the season. They actually played quite bad for the first 7-8 rounds but have now improved significantly! They have not lost in Veikkausliiga for a long time and keep climbing up the standings and are now in the 7th place with 19 points in the bank. The top 6 teams play in the Championship group later this season. SJK managed to qualify over a pretty good team, Estonian Flora in the Conference League qualies but a very good Norwegian Lillestrom were too strong winning 1-0 in Seinäjoki and 5-2 in Norway. The 5-2 does not reflect the events on the pitch though – it was much more balanced.. At home SJk did have their chances too, for example a missed penalty. Early on SJK were even better in the second leg in Norway and managed to make it 1-1. However, as I wrote on the analysis about this match – they needed to take (too) big risks as they would have needed to win, and the much better opponent was merciless and made the most of almost every scoring chance bringing my fans and me another winner betting on Finnish club’s matches in UEFA’s competitions. Now SJK can concentrate on Veikkausliiga.. They were terrific in their most recent Veikkausliiga match against FC Lahti and grabbed a 3-1 away win despite resting several key players. Lahti are of course not a great team though.. On the 10th of this month, they beat a very strong team Honka from Espoo 3-2! A fine performance at home! SJK have good fans and there is positive fuss around the club at the moment – the fans are now fully behind their team. SJK are the fifth-best team in Veikkausliiga in my view at the moment. They are only slightly worse than Inter Turku but definitely better than Haka in the 5th place in my power rating.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周日晚些时候，SJK主场迎战AC奥卢，在OmaSP球场迎战芬兰Veikkausliiga。这是芬兰足球的最高水平，按照欧洲的标准，水平不是很高。然而，我和我的球迷在芬兰足球上投注得非常好——Veikkausliiga, Ykkönen和芬兰杯。赌徒们似乎经常会迷失在Veikkausliiga的赔率上，尤其是在比赛开始前的几个小时。尽早下注往往是最好的时机，尤其是芬兰足球——即使要记住在(首发)阵容方面存在一些不确定性。仅仅看一下排名，对我的一些球迷来说，选择SJK获胜可能有点奇怪，但我再一次不会被排行榜愚弄!东道主有59%的机会赢得这场比赛。让我们仔细看看…

事实上，游客目前以24分的可观分数占据了排名第四的位置。他们的净胜球不是很好——22:22。他们的表现比我在季前赛分析中估计的要好，我相信许多足球分析师和职业足球赌徒都对他们目前在维库斯利加的表现感到非常惊讶。在芬兰杯上，他们非常令人失望，被一个小球队驱逐，JäPS在Ykkönen踢球，是一支平庸的球队。整个赛季奥卢的表现都很不稳定。在好日子里，他们肯定能打败任何人——例如强大的赫尔辛基HJK，但在糟糕的日子里，他们会无可救药地糟糕。事实上，在这个月的2号，他们在主场被瓦萨的一个平庸的VPS打败了。令人惊讶的是，最后的比分是0比6!我认为，博彩市场估值过高主要可以用两件事来解释。首先，他们拿到的积分比预期积分多了四分。这是职业投注者常用的统计数据，用来确定在很大程度上被庄家低估或高估的球队。奥卢一直有效地利用他们的进球机会，但这不会永远持续下去。其次，对HJK的胜利得到了很多媒体的关注，投注者和赌徒仍然对这场比赛(太)记忆犹新。有趣的是，奥卢租借了他们的一个关键球员，亚古比，一个有天赋但很不稳定的阿富汗人，在剩下的赛季里租借给SJK !媒体给出的理由是“内部分歧”——不管具体是什么意思。本赛季他还远没有达到最佳水平，但失去他对奥卢来说仍然是一个重大打击。

另一方面，SJK似乎重复了上个赛季的模式:赛季的开始非常缓慢。他们实际上在前7-8轮打得很差，但现在已经显著改善了!他们在维考斯利加已经很长一段时间没有输掉比赛了，他们的排名不断攀升，现在以19分排名第7。前6名的球队将在本赛季晚些时候进入冠军赛小组。SJK在联赛资格赛中击败了爱沙尼亚弗洛拉，但是挪威利勒斯特伦太强大了，他们在Seinäjoki和挪威分别以1-0和5-2获胜。5-2并没有反映出球场上的情况——它更加平衡。在主场，杰奎琳也有机会，比如罚丢了一个点球。在与挪威的第二回合比赛中，SJK的表现更加出色，并将比分扳成1比1。然而，正如我所写的关于这场比赛的分析——他们需要冒(太)大的风险，因为他们需要赢得比赛，而更好的对手无情地利用几乎每一个进球机会，为我和我的球迷带来了在欧足联比赛中押注芬兰俱乐部比赛的另一个赢家。现在SJK可以专注于Veikkausliiga..他们在最近一场对阵拉赫蒂的比赛中表现出色，在休息了几名关键球员的情况下客场3-1取胜。拉赫蒂当然不是一支伟大的球队。在这个月的10号，他们以3比2击败了来自埃斯波的强队Honka !在家里的表现真不错!SJK有很好的球迷，现在俱乐部周围有积极的骚动-球迷现在完全支持他们的球队。在我看来，SJK目前是维考斯利加第五强的球队。他们只比Inter Turku稍微差一点，但绝对比Haka好，在我的功率评级中排名第五。