In a bigger picture I have liked Huesca all season, and now that they have gotten rid of most of the individual mistakes they are no worse than half of the teams in La Liga, and the win they achieved last round - and deservedly so - will lift their moral even higher!

A look at their latest form and xG below:

Clear losses to top teams Sociedad, Madrid and Sevilla, but in the other 4 games vs their own class - and Bilbao's too - they have been at least equal in every game. It seems that they can not tactically make up the class difference to top, or perhaps they do not even try? They have been very brave and open in their last two games, and away at Granada they had basically already won the game, conceded two very late goals which was very unexpected. That game made the following Alaves-match a hugely crucial encounter, and this time they were defensively solid until the very end, conceded only 0.17 of goal expectation.

I did preview that match as a free pick, here.

https://expert.hongcai.163.com/index.html#/details/937798

I also previewed Bilbao's away game to Real Madrid, but the early red card to club legend Raul Garcia actually turned the match into a zero information match for the future and there is not much to add. Except that naturally there are now two more suspended players! Raul Garcia - their best attacking player in the air - and central back Yeray Alvarez who has played full 900 minutes in 10 games so far. His replacement along with Martinez is likely Unai Nunez, who is basically a decent player but still an upgrade.

Like mentioned in the earlier preview Bilbao are decent at home. They have 9 points with a 8-4 goal difference out of 5 games, and it all is in line with xG-data. Taking a closer look there is the huge 4-0 win over Betis who were on their weakest at the time, and also a respectable win over Sevilla... but there are also losses to Cadiz and Celta without scoring, with very little xG created!

Athletic Bilbao last 7 results with xG

Bilbao's game v Valencia did not really pass the eye test, they are now 4 games without a win and if they lose or draw this time the shouts for firing Garitano will raise again... and that is all ok to me. He is too defensively orientated and a break would do some good for him too!

Huesca are basically injury-free, they have two good performances behind, they know they can dominate matches on this level as they have recently shown, and there is no need to be afraid of the Athletic Bilbao this season, they are just another mediocre side who miss a few key players.

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本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在一个更大的图片我喜欢Huesca整个赛季,而现在,他们已经消除了大部分的个人错误他们没有比一半的球队在西甲,赢得他们取得了最后一轮-,理所当然地将提升他们的道德更高!

看看他们的最新形式和预期进球数如上图1所示:

他们明显输给了皇家社会、马德里和塞维利亚的顶级球队，但在另外四场对阵他们自己的球队——以及毕尔巴鄂的比赛中——他们每场比赛都至少打成平手。他们似乎无法在战术上弥补上与上层的阶级差异，或者他们甚至都没有尝试过?他们在最近的两场比赛中表现得非常勇敢，在客场对阵格拉纳达的比赛中，他们基本上已经赢得了比赛，在比赛后期丢了两个球，这是非常出乎意料的。那场比赛使得接下来阿拉维斯的比赛成为了一场至关重要的交锋，这一次他们的防守直到最后一刻都很稳固，只丢掉了0.17个进球期望。

我也预演了比尔巴厄对皇家马德里队的客场比赛，但早前对俱乐部传奇劳尔-加西亚的红牌实际上使这场比赛的未来变成了一场没有任何信息的比赛，除了现在自然又多了两名停赛球员!劳尔加西亚——他们最好的攻击型中场球员——以及中后卫阿尔瓦雷兹，他到目前为止已经打满了10场比赛900分钟。他和马丁内斯的替代者很可能是乌奈努涅斯，他基本上是个不错的球员，但仍然是一个升级。

就像之前预览中提到的，毕尔巴鄂在家里还算不错。他们在5场比赛中有9分8-4个净胜球，这一切都符合xG-data。仔细看一下，4:0大胜贝蒂斯，当时贝蒂斯处于他们最弱的状态，还有一场对塞维利亚的大胜……但是也有输给加的斯和塞尔塔的时候没有进球，只有很少的xG创造机会!

毕尔巴鄂竞技7场比赛预期进球数如图2所示。

他们现在已经4场比赛没有赢过一场，如果他们这次输球或平局，解雇加利塔诺的呼声将再次响起……这对我来说是没问题的。他太擅长防守了，休息一下对他也有好处!

韦斯卡基本上没有伤病，他们有两场出色的表现，他们知道他们可以主宰这个级别的比赛，就像他们最近展示的那样，没有必要害怕这个赛季的毕尔巴鄂竞技，他们只是另一支缺少一些关键球员的平庸球队。

预测比分1:1。