I thought this long and hard as there Villarreal side has been rather toothless in front of the while Gerard Moreno has been out, but they have also been unlucky - especially so in the cup loss to Levante - and Gerard will be back today at least for a bench so it is time to hit again against the leagest weakest side Elche!

The last 7 results with xG tell almost the whole story:

The draw vs Real Madrid came after a good effort, but it is already 6 rounds ago. Since then they have been outplayed by every single opponent, even Valladolid. Elche had the habit of scoring goals out of nowhere which earned them points, even wins, in the early season but as their luck has no returned to normal levels Elche goals are hard to find!

In the xG-data we can see that they still have scored 50% too many goals and also conceded several goals less than they should have. Partly they can thank the quick reactions of keeper Badia, partly simply luck.

They did not make any important transfers, they miss their best scorer Fidel through injury at three regular starters Verdy, Morente and Barragan through suspension. Hard to find any reason to get excited!

Of course we can discuss the Villarreal performances and tiredness factor.

The results are decent, but the performances have good apart from scoring, and that is the Moreno-factor. The schedule with 2 cup games, and the list of absentees are the reasons why I am not super excited. However most of the absentees are out for long-term, and the basic class of Villarreal is so much higher I rate this as a must bet! In the xG-data Villarreal have been equally good with Atletico Madrid and Barcelona, and one of these days the gates will open.

When they met in Vila-real in December Elche managed with their defensive tactics and got a 0-0 draw, but they were themselves also narrowed down to 0.05 xG... and it is lucky to get any points with that pace.

0-3

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

我认为这漫长和艰难,因为比利亚雷亚尔一直锋线无力，在杰拉德莫雷诺缺阵后,但是他们也被不幸的——特别是在杯赛输给莱万特。但今天杰拉德今天会回来至少会替补，所以是时候再次冲击对埃尔切弱一边了!

最后7场的预期进球数数据几乎说明了一切:

与皇家马德里的平局是在他们努力之后，但现在已经是6轮之前了。从那以后，他们被每一个对手打败，甚至是巴利亚多利德。在赛季初期，埃尔切有一个进球的习惯，可以帮他们赢得积分，甚至胜利，但是由于他们的运气没有恢复到正常水平，埃尔切的进球很难找到!

在xg的数据中，我们可以看到他们仍然多进了50%的球，而且失球也比他们应该的少了几个。一部分他们应该感谢门将巴迪亚的快速反应，一部分仅仅是运气。

他们没有做任何重要的转会，他们错过了他们最好的射手菲德尔因为受伤，三个常规先发Verdy, Morente和Barragan因为停赛。找不到任何兴奋的理由!

当然我们可以讨论比利亚雷亚尔的表现和疲劳因素。

结果还算不错，但是除了得分之外，他们的表现也不错，而得分是最不重要的因素。两场杯赛的赛程，以及缺阵名单都是我不太兴奋的原因。然而，大多数的缺阵都是长期的，而比利亚雷亚尔的基础级别要高得多，我认为这是一个必须的赌注!在xG-data中，比利亚雷亚尔在马德里竞技和巴塞罗那的表现同样出色，总有一天，大门会打开。

当他们12月在比利亚-雷亚尔相遇时，埃尔切运用了他们的防守战术，并以0-0战平了对手，但他们自己也将比分缩小到了0.05。以这样的速度得分是很幸运的。

预测比分0:3。