Lanus VS Godoy Cruz

Lanus and Godoy Cruz lock horns in this Argentinian Cup 1/16-finals match at a neutral location early Thursday morning Beijing time. This is a match between two quite equal team by raw class. In fact, according to a well-known and very respected German website, Transfermarkt.com Lanus’s players’ total market value is just shy of million euros. This number is definitely too high though and I would set the number at 22 million. Godoy Cruz’s squad’s total value is about five million less, but I would say the fair value is around 24 million. Indeed, by pure class Godoy Cruz are slightly stronger in my view. In Copa De La Liga Profesional, a competition that had a total of 14 rounds and that was played before the Liga Profesional started Godoy Cruz grabbed 16 points and had a goal difference of 21:24 and finished in 11th place. Lanus, on the other hand, managed to grab one point less and their goal difference was 17:18 and finished 12th.

I want to highlight, though, that Godoy Cruz were unlucky in terms of expected goals allowed – and most importantly in terms of expected points in this that competition. These statistics are commonly used by professional football bettors to identify under-valued teams and at the end of the day, of course, to find lucrative bets. The main rationale behind this pick is, however, the fact that Lanus are in abysmal form at the moment! I have often mentioned that one of the keys to profitable sports betting is not to react too much on the mist recent matches but this time I think the bookies have not reacted enough to Lanus’s struggles! ´They have lost four of their latest five matches and played one draw. This match took place on the 8th of this month and was a Copa Sudamericana clash against an Ecuadorian team Ind. del Valle. Lanus were clear favorites in this match, but it was a disappointing goalless draw at home. They did have some scoring chances but should do more offensively if they want to win today. Their offense lacked structure, creativity and pace. Their biggest problem lately has, however, been very shaky defense and they have allowed 10 goals in their most recent five matches! Their confidence seems to be low overall now. Godoy Cruz do not have huge offensive power but will probably find the net here – hopefully many times. They have a 45% chance of winning and with the recommended bet (+0.5 goals handicap option) my fans and I have a 76% chance to win! Godoy Cruz are in fine form winning three of their latest five matches - losing just one. Three days ago, they took a magnificent win on the road against one of the biggest by financial resources and strongest on the pitch - as well as most iconic Argentinian clubs - River Plate! They did have some luck on their side but if was still a fine and confidence-boosting 2-0 win as massive underdogs according to the betting market. Before this team beat Colon Santa Fe 1-0 at home but would have deserved a clearer win as they had big domination in this match.