Ferencvaros vs Tobol

Ferencvaros host Tobol for this UEFA Champions League qualification first round match at Groupama Arena Budapest, the capital of Hungary, early Thursday morning Beijing time. This is the second leg, and some people might think the visitors from Kazakhstan have a good chance of qualifying of qualifying for the next round as the first leg was a goalless draw at the Centralnyj Stadion in Kostanay. I think the visitors would need a lot of luck and/or the hosts having a complete “off day” to win this one – even through extra time or penalties. The difference is pure class between the two teams is massive..

First of all, Hungary is a pretty good football country and even did quite well in the EURO 2020 last summer making Germany and France – two of the top5 countries in the world work hard. The Hungarians are also very enthusiastic about football and atmosphere is often mind-blowing when the national team - or Ferencvaros play at home. I have often mentioned that home advantage is substantial in international club competitions but for Ferencvaros it is even bigger than on average. For Ferencvaros not qualifying would be a catastrophe – even a shame as a lot of money – and also bonus money for the players is at stake.. Last season the hosts even made it to the Europe League group phase. The Champions League, where they have played in the past though, is a pretty distant dream but Europa League is a realistic goal. They did not really succeed in the group phase but also faced two very difficult opponents Spanish Real Betis and Bayer Leverkusen. Even so, they did manage to beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 at home! Leverkusen actually even play in Champions League this autumn! In Germany they fought well but lost 1-2. Tobol, on the other hand, have never achieved anything in European club competitions and I would be shocked if they were to get anywhere near Europa League group phase!

The Hungarian OTP Bank Liga is of totally differ level than the Kazakhstani Premier League which is of lower quality than the betting market, many football journalists and even some amateur bettors seem to believe.. For example, last season KuPS from Kuopio - from my home country Finland, qualified over Astana, a team that is higher in the standings than Tobol at the moment! I must say the Finnish Veikkausliiga and KuPS are of very low level by European standards.. Tobol are currently in the 4st place in this league and have had a somewhat disappointing season. In their most recent match, they lost 1-6 in cup match but rested all the key players though so this much does not reeally efefct my analysis too much. However, it is clear they do not have too much quality players on the bench - another advantege on the hosts who have some 20 high-class guys in the squad. Tobol will surely do their best here but already in the first leg Ferencvaros were clearly the better team and should improve further with a competitive match under the belt. Their domestic league is on a break now. Tobol seemed to have a decent defense but offensively they seemed to lack the tools to cause the Hungarians too much trouble even in front of their fans.. It is actuall pretty common in UEFA's competitions that the big underdog gets a draw at home in the first leg but gets tashed away by the better team.. I would not be at all surprised of Tobol failed to score here.. 2-0 is a very probably final score, and the chance of my fans and me winning with the Ferencvaros -1.5 goals handicap option is 59%. We would need the hosts to win by at least two goals’ margin. In terms of players’ total market value according to a well-known and hugely respected German website Transfermarkt.com - and this is a surprisingly good indicator on the a team’s level in the pitch - the visitors are a much bigger club with the 42.80 million euros total value. In my opinion, this is still too low and 49-50 million would be more correct! The visitors’ squad is valued at around 11 million but they definitely look worse than that on the pitch! I expect huge pressure on the visitors’ mediocre defense from the hosts here - right from the kickoff. A quick goal would force the visitors to make more risks, and this should offer the host juicy chances for deadly counterattacks! Even a 3-0 or 4-0 win for them would not shock me at all..