In my opinion Internacional have really good chances to win in today's match up.

Internacional have really strong record at home against America as they won 6 of last 7 home matches against them. In previous season Internacional won here 3:1 and I expect similar scenario today.

According to the expected goals scored/conceded models America is one of the worst team in whole league, especially on away. So far they lost 6 of 8 away matches and scored only 3 goals. Defensive formation looks extremely poor - they conceded 12 goals on the road, but according to the expected goals conceded model they concede 18.13 (!!!). Their form is not good despite last round win 1:0 at home against Goias. Before that game they had streak of 5 matches without a win and even one goal scored (in each game they had expected goals scored number lower than opponents).

Internacional after 15 matches is only 4 points behind leader of the table. They have big dreams, no doubt about that, but they have to win such matches against lower rank opponents at home without any excuses. Morale in team is really good - they made great comeback against Colo Colo in Copa Libertadores. Internacional lost first match 0:2 and in second match was 0:1 behind, but scored 4 goals and get promotion into next round. Offensive formation have a lot of fire and they should be able to make big damages for poor America defense. In 7 home matches Internacional scored 13 goals, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 16.57. Their form in overall is very good - they looked strong even in those matches where they failed to win. In home loss against Botafogo: expected goals scored for Internacional 3.84, in draw on away against Ceara: expected goals scored for Internacional 2.26.

Internacional is much better team than America at both ends of the pitch: more shots on target per game, more big chances created, more goals scored per game, less goals conceded, more clean sheets kept, but also they are better team with the ball: more accurate passes per game and higher average ball possession %.

Internacional is clear favorite for me. They have all required tools to control this game, to score more than one goal and grab 3 points at the end of the day.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在我看来，国际有很好的机会赢得今天的比赛。

国际米兰在主场对美国队的战绩非常好，他们在过去7场主场对美国队的比赛中赢了6场。在上个赛季，国际米兰在这里3:1获胜，我预计今天也会出现类似的情况。

根据预期的进球数和失球数，美国队是整个联赛中最差的球队之一，尤其是客场。到目前为止，他们在8场客场比赛中输掉了6场，只进了3球。防守阵型看起来非常糟糕——他们在客场丢了12球，但根据预期丢球模型，他们丢了18.13球(!!)他们的状态并不好，尽管上一轮他们在主场1:0战胜了戈亚斯。在那场比赛之前，他们已经连续5场比赛没有取得一场胜利，甚至连一个进球都没有(每场比赛他们的预期进球数都低于对手)。

国际米兰在15场比赛后仅落后积分榜榜首4分。他们有伟大的梦想，这是毫无疑问的，但他们必须在没有任何借口的情况下在主场战胜低级别对手。球队的士气真的很好，他们在解放者杯上战胜了科罗拉多队。国际米兰第一场0:2输了，第二场0:1落后，但进了4球，晋级下一轮。进攻阵型有很多火力，他们应该能够对美国可怜的防御造成很大的损害。在7场主场比赛中，国际米兰打进13球，但根据预期进球模式，他们应该打进16.57球。他们的整体状态非常好——即使在那些没有赢球的比赛中，他们看起来也很强大。主场输给博塔弗戈:国际米兰的预期进球数为3.84，客场战平塞阿拉:国际米兰的预期进球数为2.26。

国际米兰在攻防两端都比美国强得多:每场比赛更多的射门，创造更多的机会，每场进球更多，丢球更少，不失球更多，但他们也是更好的有球球队:每场比赛更准确的传球和更高的平均控球率。

国际公司显然是我的最爱。他们拥有所有需要的工具来控制这场比赛，在一天结束的时候获得一个以上的进球和3分。