Sao Paulo VS U. Catolica

Sao Paolo welcome U. Catolica for this Copa Sudamericana 1/8-finals battle at Estádio do Morumbi in Sao Paulo Friday morning Beijing time. This an interesting cup competition where teams from various South American countries compete. However, the best teams from these countries participate to Copa Libertadores. Indeed, from Brazilian Serie A teams that place 7-12th qualify for this cup. As for Chilean Premera Division, teams from 4th to 7th place fight for glory and prize money in Copa Sudamericana. Indeed, there is no doubt that the Brazilian Serie A, and Brazil as a football country, is of better quality than Chile. The hosts’ players’ total value is almost 80 million euros according to a well-known and respected German website Transfermarkt.com. This number is too high in my opinion and for some reason players from Serie A tend to be over-valued in general compared to players from many other South American leagues, especially from Colombia’s first tie!, but also from Chilean Primera League. The visitors’ players are values at just over 20 million which is too low. 25-27 million would be a more accurate number. The visitors would deserve more respect on the betting market here..

Sao Paulo wont the first leg 4-2 in an open and very entertaining match. The Brazilian team were slim favorites in the betting market according to the bookies priced around 2.50 to win. I rated them as smaller favorites then the betting market going into this match but the odds on U. Catolica were still not quite high enough to place a bet. However, the Chilean hosts had over 70% ball possession in this match and recorded 17 scoring attempts – Sao Paulo had nine. U. Catolica also recorded more than twice as many completed assists as well as attacks and dangerous attacks. I will not say they were the better team as their defense was so vulnerable the statistics do not quite reflect the events on the pitch, but Chilean team definitely have potential. I believe they will improve, especially defensively, for this game. It is hard to see them qualifying though as Sao Paulo are the better team by raw class and home advantage is substantial. However, the visitors have nothing to lose, and I would also not be too surprised to see the hosts rotate their squad here a bit. The +1.5 handicap on the Chileans is a big one as the hosts would qualify even if they were to lose by one goals’ difference! The chance of my fans and I winning the bet is 73%. We have seen it many times in international cup competitions that not needing to win has big effect on the probabilities in a given match.. For example, KuPS from my home country were completely crushed by Union Berlin 0-4 in Helsinki in UEFA Conference League qualification match last summer but in the second leg in Berlin it was a goalless draw! Both teams are in fine form result-wise in their domestic leagues. Especially U. Catolica very surprisingly dominant in their most recent match and pretty easily swept past Coquimbo 2-0 at home. They had almost 70% ball possession and recorded seven shots on target - the visitors had just two. Sao Paulo, on the other hand, were a bit lucky to beat Atletico Go 2-1 away from home in a match where the hosts were slightly better as a whole on the pitch.

北京时间周五上午，圣保罗迎战天主大学参加在圣保罗 Estádio do Morumbi 举行的南美杯 1/8 决赛。这是一场有趣的杯赛，来自不同南美国家的队伍在此角逐。然而，这些国家最好的球队会参加南美解放者杯。事实上，排名第 7-12 位的巴西意甲球队有资格参加本届杯赛。至于智利普雷梅拉赛区，第 4 至第 7 名的球队将在南美杯上争夺荣誉和奖金。的确，毫无疑问，巴西的意甲，以及作为足球大国的巴西，比智利的素质要好。根据知名且受人尊敬的德国网站 Transfermarkt.com 的数据，主队球员的总价值接近 8000 万欧元。在我看来这个数字太高了，出于某种原因，与许多其他南美联赛的球员相比，巴甲的球员总体上往往被高估了，尤其是哥伦比亚的首场比赛！还有智利的球员甲级联赛。客队球员的身价刚刚超过2000万，太低了。 25-27 百万将是一个更准确的数字。在市场上，参观者应该得到更多的尊重。

圣保罗以 2-4 输掉了首回合比赛。根据机构的指数为 2.50，巴西球队在市场上是稍微弱势的热门。我将它们评为比进入这场比赛的投注市场更小的热门，但天主大学的指数仍然不够高，无法下注。然而，智利球队在这场比赛中拥有超过 70% 的控球率并记录了 17 次得分尝试——圣保罗有 9 次。 U. Catolica 还记录了超过两倍的完成助攻以及攻击和危险攻击。我不会说他们是更好的球队，因为他们的防守非常脆弱，统计数据并不能完全反映球场上的情况，但智利队绝对有潜力。我相信他们会进步的，尤其是在防守端，对于这场比赛。很难看到他们晋级，因为圣保罗在原始级别上是更好的球队，而且主场优势很大。然而，客队并没有什么可失去的，而且看到东道主在这里轮换他们的阵容，我也不会太惊讶。智利人的 +1.5 让分是一个很大的让分，因为即使他们以一球之差输掉，东道主也能晋级！我和我的粉丝赢得赌注的几率是 73%。我们已经在国际杯赛中多次看到，不需要获胜对给定比赛的概率影响很大。例如，来自我的祖国的 KuPS 在欧洲联盟联赛联赛中被赫尔辛基的柏林联合 0-4 彻底碾压去年夏天的资格赛，但在柏林的第二回合比赛中，这是一场没有目标的平局！两支球队在国内联赛中的状态都很好。尤其是天主大学在他们最近的比赛中非常出人意料地占据主导地位，并且很容易横扫科金博主场2-0。他们拥有近 70% 的控球率并记录了 7 次射门——客队只有 2 次。另一方面，圣保罗有点幸运地在主场以 2-1 击败 Atletico Go 的比赛中，在球场上的整体表现略胜一筹。预测圣保罗胜。