Two Libertadores picks for today! 解放者杯分享
2022-07-06

Borja

外籍分析师

解读理由:

RIVER - VELEZ

River should make a comeback here.

River made an awful game in the first leg. They lost 0:1 but deserved to lose by more goals, just because their goalkeeper Armani was the man of the match. And it was something unexpected because they are one of the main title contenders and were the best team in the group stage, with 6/6 wins, the second best attack after Palmeiras with 18 goals and the best defense with only 3 conceded.

But this is the typical game of River. The Libertadores tournament is their strong point, and I’m expecting a huge comeback and reaction by them at home. It won’t be the first time and either the last one.

On the other hand, Velez has been a very weak team. They have a poor squad and their amazing performance in the first leg was unexpected (maybe a bit of luck, a lazy game by River and home support). But their Libertadores has been so poor, qualifying luckily thanks to only two victories which came both in the last 2 rounds, one of them against Estudiantes who played with reserves as they were already qualified as first of the group.

They were starting to find their way, achieving chemistry and good football, but the club decided to change the coach and their performances started to be so poor, as we can see in the Argentinian league where they are seated in 22th position with just 1 victory in 6 games so far.

Velez made a critical mistake in the first game: leave River alive, as they deserved to win by 2-3 goals at least and only won by 1, something that Rive can comeback easily. Difference between both squads is huge and River has much more experience. I'm expecting them to win here and even to qualify.

COLON - TALLERES

COLON - TALLERES

First game ended 1-1.

Colón suffered a lot of changes in their squad and are struggling to find the correct way. Their group stage was so good but their rivals were so poor, probably the easiest group of the tournament in that round with Cerro Porteño, Olimpia, Peñarol. But I continue seeing this team without a clear idea of what to play and how to do it.

The best example was the first game at home against Talleres, where Colon just played a defensive game; they were outplayed and only had chances at counters. Something which can’t be acceptable playing a Libertadores ⅛ finals game against a similar rival. Somehow, they managed to score and had chances thanks to the mistakes made by Talleres in defense, but their performance was so poor and a clear signal that they don't know what to do.

On the other hand, Talleres is having a bad run in the league too (same as Colon) but their Libertadores performances so far have been so good. Their group was much more difficult and managed to qualify, losing only away against Flamengo (one of the best teams in the tournament) but with a good performance.

According to what I saw so far in the tournament, both squads and the first leg game, I see Talleres slightly better here. As said, they dominated the first game and was the only team who proposed to attack. Today I think they will put more pressure and will solve the mistakes made in defense, so they should be able to win and qualify here.

For me they were favorites to qualify and after seeing the first game, they are even more favorites here in my opinion.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

河床vs萨斯菲

雷芙应该会在这里卷土重来。

河床队在首回合打得很糟糕。他们0:1输掉了比赛,但他们应该输更多的球,因为他们的门将阿玛尼是本场比赛的最佳球员。这是一些意想不到的事情,因为他们是冠军的主要争夺者之一,是小组赛中最好的球队,6/6胜,18球的帕尔梅拉斯之后第二好的进攻和最好的防守,只丢了3球。

但这是典型的《River》游戏。解放者锦标赛是他们的强项,我期待着他们在国内的强势反击和反应。这不会是第一次,也不会是最后一次。

另一方面,贝莱斯是一支非常弱的球队。他们的阵容很糟糕,他们在首回合的惊人表现出乎意料(也许有点运气,河床的懒惰比赛和主场的支持)。但他们的解放者队表现很差,幸运的是,他们只在最后两轮取得了两场胜利,其中一场是对阵预备队的大学生队,因为他们已经是小组第一。

他们开始找到自己的道路,实现化学反应和良好的足球,但俱乐部决定更换教练,他们的表现开始变得如此糟糕,正如我们可以看到在阿根廷联赛,他们坐在第22位,6场比赛中只有1场胜利。

在第一场比赛中,贝莱斯犯了一个致命的错误:让河床活着,因为他们至少应该以2-3球取胜,但只赢了1球,这让河床很容易反击。两支球队的差异很大,雷芙的经验更丰富。我期待他们在这里获胜,甚至晋级。


科隆竞技vs铁路工场

第一场比赛以1比1结束。

Colón在他们的阵容中经历了很多变化,正在努力寻找正确的方式。他们的小组赛很好,但他们的对手很差,可能是这一轮比赛中最容易的小组,塞罗Porteño,奥林匹亚,Peñarol。但是我仍然看到这支球队没有明确的理念去玩什么以及如何去做。

最好的例子是第一场主场对阵塔雷雷斯,科隆只是打了一场防守;他们被打败了,只有反击的机会。和类似的对手玩解放者八分之一决赛是不可接受的。不知怎么的,由于塔雷雷斯在防守端犯下的错误,他们取得了进球和机会,但他们的表现太糟糕了,这是一个明显的信号,他们不知道该怎么办。

另一方面,塔雷雷斯在联盟中也有不好的表现(和科隆一样),但他们的解放者队到目前为止的表现非常好。他们所在的小组难度要大得多,并且成功晋级,只在客场输给了弗拉门戈(比赛中最好的球队之一),但他们的表现很好。

根据我目前所看到的比赛情况,无论是球队阵容还是首回合比赛,我都认为塔列尔在这里稍微好一些。如前所述,他们在第一场比赛中占据了优势,是唯一一支提出进攻的球队。今天我认为他们会给对手更多的压力,解决防守中的错误,所以他们应该能够赢得比赛并晋级。

对我来说,他们是晋级的热门,在看了第一场比赛后,在我看来他们在这里更受欢迎。

观点仅代表作者本人,不代表本站立场。
作者在平台、组织、网站等发表的言论,意见,倾向等都只是作者本人的观点,和平台,组织网站等第三方没有关系。