Akureyri VS Valur

Akureyri host Valur for this round 11 of Icelandic BESTA-DEILD KARLA, the highest level of this small Nordic country’s football. Iceland have a decent national team – it has been in decline lately though and was at its peak back in 2016 when they even beat England 2-1 in EURO 2016. This country, however, has a good football culture though and most teams have bigger home advantage than for example teams in the Finnish Veikkausliiga. Akureyri are a strong team at home and have lost just two of their most recent 10 home games. By raw class the visitors, who are also a bigger team by financial resources, are slightly better but on the pitch the difference would be almost non-existent in neutral location. Indeed, in front of enthusiastic fans Akureyri are not big, but still solid favorites. The chance of my fans and me winning with the +0.5 goals handicap option on them is 72%. In the standings just two points separate these two teams. The hosts are in 5th place – Valur occupy the 4th place.

The hosts are in much better form than the recent results would suggest. In their most recent match, they faced Breidablik, a strong team that currently top the standings with a whopping 31 points and have stunning goal difference – 35:12. Akureyri suffered a heavy 1-4 result away from home but the ball possession was almost 50-50% and the today’s host even recorded more attacks and dangerous attacks. They were not the better team, but the final score is very misleading! Before this they faced Fram at home and had to settle for a 2-2 draw but would have deserved all three points. Indeed, they recorded much more in expected goals than the hosts and had a lot more shots on target, scoring attempts as well as attacks and dangerous attacks! Indeed, the betting market has over-reacted to their latest result-wise disappointing results and we must take advantage of this!

Valur, on the other hand, did not convince me at all in their most recent match. Yes, they did defeat a lowly team Leiknir 2-1 at home as around 1.45 favorites according to the bookies to win. Leiknir have grabbed just four points so far this season and often struggle, especially on the road.. Even so, the match could easily have been a draw as the hosts had just 54% ball possession and Leiknir recorded more attacks and scoring attempts. Valur can surely improve but will even that be enough here.. The hosts have defended well in most matches and have conceded just 12 goals so far – less than Valur. Valur winning would be a surprise here!