La Serena VS O’Higgins

La Serena welcome OHiggins for this Chilean Primera Division round 16 clash at Estadio La Portada in La Serena early Monday morning Beijing time. This league is relatively low-level compared to many other South American leagues – Brazilian Serie A or Argentinian Liga Profesional. Goal expectancy on average is higher than in those leagues but I see this match as more low-scoring than the betting market does and also estimate a draw having being a more probable result than the odds would reflect.. Yes, La Serena played a very high-scoring match in the Chilean Cup on the 19th of June losing to U. De Conseption 3-4 away from home. The cup matches are often a different story and I am sure their coach is happy about the way they defended and they will at least try to improve in that department.. They lost the second leg also - 1-2 at home! Let’s remember that U. De Conception play at a lower level, in Primera B. These were lame performances from La Serena on I cannot understand why the bookies see them as the favorites here – not very clear anymore though as the odds on visitors have been dropping in recent hours.. The visitors are clearly the better team by raw class and are in my view the favorites here. The home advantage is of course there bet La Serena have won just one of their latest 13 home games! An abysmal recorded indeed. They do not have the best fans which as partial explanation for the horrible record. The chance of my fans and me winning with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap option on the visitors is 72%.

The hosts currently occupy the 12th place in the standings with 14 points and a bad goal difference of 19:28. Indeed, they have massive defensive problems. Their structure in the midfield and defense is often poor and the defenders make too many errors. O’Higgins do not have a particularly strong offense – they have scored just 15 goals so far this season in this league but have been unlucky in terms of both expected goals and points and I expect them to find the net today at least once against the hosts’ shaky defense.. La Serena did win their most in this league – 3-2 at home - but it was a lucky one as A. Italiano were the better team with over 60% ball possession and recorded much more scoring attempts, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. La Serena have won a total of just three matches in Primera Division so far. O’Higgins, on the other, occupy the 9th place and have a hugely better defense than the hosts. Indeed, they have allowed just 17 goals so far.They have a respectable 21 points in the bank. They were also not great in the Chilean Cup both at least qualified over Arturo Fernandez Vial and have played okay in this league recently