Huachipato VS Curico Unido

Huachipato host Curico Unido at Estadio CAP in Talcahuano Sunday morning Beijing time. A very balanced battle is on the cards here between two pretty quite strong teams in this somewhat low-level league compared to many other South American leagues, like the Brazialian Serie A.. Neither team have been quite at their best lately, especially in terms of defensive structure. The betting market sees this clash as a more high-scoring one than I do, and I would also estimate that odds on the draw are a bit too high.. The probability is 31%. The bookies rate the hosts here as the favorites – not very clear though, which cannot be correct. I see the visitors as extremely narrow favorites and the recommended bet Curido Unido with the +0.5 goals handicap option has a great, 66%, chance of winning. Let’s take a closer look.

Huachipato currently occupy the 7th place in the standings in this league of 16 teams total with 23 points in the bank. Their goal difference, however, is bad 16:19. Indeed, they have not been great offensively but also allow a bit too many goals to compete for the top positions.. I do not see that having much room for improvement. They have over-performed in terms on expected points and are, as a result, overvalued on the betting market. The expected goals (xG) statistic commonly used by professional football bettors. They clearly lack offensive structure and individual skill and some of their defenders are a bit slow and often error-prone too.. They have did not really impress me in the two matches they played in Chilean Cup against a small team, D. Puero Montt. This team plays in the Primera B and the hosts were cleat favorites in both matches. They took a 3-0 win at home in the second leg on the 27th of this month but the match was more balanced on the pitch. In the first leg it was a 2-2 draw. They were not great in their most recent match in this league either - despite defeating Palestino 2-1 at home as solid favorites according to the betting market. If they do not improve they will probably not take all three points here. It was a very balanced and a quite boring match and both lacked offensive structure and pace the hosts recorded two shots on target - the visitors had just one. Both teams had seven scoring chances. The visitors were not too good in the Chilian Cup either but did qualify over S. Wanderers. However, in this league they have proved that they are clearly better than the hosts. They have grabbed a total of 25 points and occupy the 4th place and have an excellent goal difference of 28:13. They have been unlucky in many matches and would deserve more respect from the bookies.