Nautico vs Criciuma

Nautico welcome Criciuma at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho in Recife for this Brazilian Serie B round 15 clash. This is battle between two decent teams – neither one are among the favorites in thus league, the second tier of Brazilian soccer. Odds on the visitors to win have been already dropping with the sharpest bookies but I think there is still high enough odds available.. The visitors are clearly the better team at the moment - despite being the smaller club in terms players’ total market value according to a well-respected website Transfermarkt.com. This number, which I often mention on my previews, often reflects a team’s level on the pitch quite well but can, of course, also be misleading. As for Nautico and Criciuma the under-performing hosts’ squad is clearly over-valued – with the visitors we have on opposite situation. I would say as many as five Criciuma players should have a higher market value.

Criciuma occupy the 5th place in the standings at the moment with respectable 19 points in the bank. They also have a pretty good goal difference - 15:13. I have to say that they were not quite at their best in their most recent match despite the 1-0 home win over Vila Nova FC. They were a bit sluggish offensively and often did not pass the ball fast and accurately enough. They did, however, defend in an organized and well-structured way. They are the favorites here, but I still expect the coach Claudio Tencati’s men to approach this match with a patient, quite cautious strategy. I see this match as more low-scoring - and the draw as more probable than the betting market does. This result would be enough for my fans and me to win once again with the Nautico +0.5 goals handicap option. The chance of winning is higher than with my picks on average – 74%.

In a match before the Vila Nova game Criciuma were very unlucky not to grab even a point. This is certainly not even the only match where they would have earned a better result in terms of expected goals than they actually got.. Indeed, they lost 0-1 but recorded more scoring attempts, attacks and dangerous attacks. We must remember that Criciuma’s defender Rayan,32, was sent right before half-time, which of course was a major blow for their chances. I was pretty impressed by the way they fought and performed on the pitch. They reportedly have a great team spirit - a thing that can often be detected in difficult situations or when two - even relatively- balanced teams fight for the win in the dying minutes of the match. The hosts, on the other hand, are in bad form and have not won any of their latest four matches. Moreover, at home they have not any of their five more recent matches! They are in the 17th place in the league table with just three win. Yes, the home advantage is there but it is undoubtedly smaller than in this league on average. Indeed, Nautico do not have the best fans..