Haka vs KuPS

Haka welcome visitors from Kuopio for this Suomen Cup (Finnish Cup) battle Tehtaan Kenttä in Valkeakoski, a small city on southern Finland. This is a 1/8 final of this traditional competition. Valkeakoski is true football city and Haka is an important thing for the local people. The weather is very good – sunny and around +30 degrees Celsius so a clearly bigger than normal number of fans are expected at the stadium. The home advantage is bigger than in a normal Veikkausliiga match. This is one of the biggest matches of the season for the hosts as they are a mediocre, mid-table team in Veikkausliiga and do not have a realistic chance to fight for a top3 or top4 position which would secure matches in UEFA’s international club competitions. They are, however, also realistically not at risk of being relegated to Ykkönen, the second tier. KuPS, on the other hand, currently top the Veikkausliiga standings and with an extremely high probability finish in top3. The prize money is also small in Suomen Cup so that is not really a motivational factor - especially not for KuPS who have rich owner, investment banker Ari Lahti. Indeed, the hosts should be clearly more motivated here! I am not saying that KuPS would not try to win - their excellent coach Simo Valakari, is a demanding guy who hates losing. However, he is a smart coach and knows what the priorities for his team this season are – trying to win Veikkausliiga and secondly the matches in Europe. Some rotating is very probably today as KuPS face their biggest competitors in Veikkausliiga, HJK Helsinki, on Saturday at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.. There are also Conference League qualification matches coming up. KuPS have some 13-14 very good players but after that the level of players drops significantly!

There is, of course, not doubt on the fact that KuPS are the better team by raw class and the difference is not even that small! If this was a Veikkausliiga match, I would not bet in Haka with the current odds offered by the bookies. Even so, in this particular match the wise selection is to bet on the hosts with the +0.5 goals handicap option. The chance of my fans and winning once again is 57%. We have gone against KuPS several times this season and won most of these picks. A few weeks ago, I recommended a bet on Honka and they comfortably beat KuPS 2-0 at home after having clear control of the match and could easily have won 3-0 or 4-1. I will say this once again as more and more fans follow me and purchase picks on Finnish football: KuPS are not the best team in Veikkausliiga and are over-valued in most of their matches. This can be seen in expected points, expected goals etc. even more sophisticated statistics used by most pro football bettors. KuPS were also not good in their most recent match despite the narrow win over AC Oulu at home as massive favorites. Valakari has also publicly said multiple times recently that he is not happy with his team’s offensive performances. Their defense is very solid though. To enhance the situation, KuPS have acquired a dangerous goal-scorer, Slovenian Filip Valencic, who was selected as the best player in Veikkausliiga twice in the past, but he cannot play today as the international transfer window is not open yet. Haka have not any of their latest five matches and are indeed in fine form. They have won three of these matches and have looked confident on the pitch lately.

哈卡迎战来自库奥皮奥的游客在芬兰南部的一个小城市 Valkeakoski 参加芬兰杯（芬兰杯）对战 Tehtaan Kenttä。这是这场传统比赛的1/8决赛。 Valkeakoski 是真正的足球城市，而哈卡对当地人来说是一件很重要的事情。天气非常好——阳光明媚，大约+30摄氏度，因此预计体育场内的球迷人数将明显多于正常人数。主场优势比普通的Veikkausliiga 比赛更大。对于东道主来说，这是本赛季最重要的比赛之一，因为他们在 Veikkausliiga 是一支平庸的中游球队，并且没有现实的机会争夺前 3 或前 4 的位置，从而确保在欧足联国际俱乐部比赛中的比赛。然而，他们实际上也没有被降级到第二梯队 Ykkönen 的风险。另一方面，KuPS 目前在 Veikkausliiga 积分榜上名列前茅，并且很有可能进入前三名。奖金也少在芬兰堡杯中，这并不是一个真正的激励因素——尤其是对于拥有富有的老板、投资银行家 Ari Lahti 的 KuPS 来说更是如此。的确，这里的主人显然应该更有动力！我并不是说 KuPS 不会试图赢——他们出色的教练 Simo Valakari 是一个要求苛刻、讨厌失败的人。然而，他是一位聪明的教练，他知道他的球队本赛季的首要任务是什么——努力赢得 Veikkausliiga，其次是欧洲的比赛。今天很可能会进行一些轮换，因为库普斯将于周六在赫尔辛基的博尔特竞技场迎战他们最大的竞争对手 Veikkausliiga，HJK 赫尔辛基。还有会议联赛资格赛即将举行库普斯有一些非常出色的球员，但之后球员的水平显着下降！

当然，毫无疑问，库普斯在原始级别上是更好的团队，而且差异甚至不是那么小！如果这是一场 Veikkausliiga 比赛，我不会以博彩公司提供的当前赔率在哈卡下注。即便如此，在这场特殊的比赛中，明智的选择是投注东道主的让分盘为 +0.5。我的粉丝再次获胜的机会是 57%。本赛季我们多次与库普斯交手，并赢得了大部分选秀权。几周前，我推荐了一个投注在 Honka 上的赌注，他们在清楚地控制了比赛之后在主场以 2-0 轻松击败了库普斯，并且很容易以 3-0 或 4-1 获胜。随着越来越多的球迷关注我并购买芬兰足球的选秀权，我会再次这么说：KuPS 并不是 Veikkausliiga 最好的球队，而且在他们的大部分比赛中都被高估了。这可以从大多数职业足球博彩玩家使用的预期得分、预期进球等甚至更复杂的统计数据中看出。库普斯在他们的尽管在主场以微弱优势击败奥卢，但最近的比赛是大热门。瓦拉卡里最近也多次公开表示，他对球队的进攻表现并不满意。他们的防守虽然很稳固。为了改善局面，库普斯引进了一名危险的射手，斯洛文尼亚人菲利普·瓦伦西奇，他曾两次被选为韦卡乌斯里加最佳球员，但由于国际转会窗口尚未开放，他今天无法上场。哈卡最近的五场比赛都没有，而且状态确实很好。他们赢得了其中三场比赛，最近在球场上看起来很自信。