06月28日卡尔马 VS 韦纳穆比赛分析直播
23：卡尔马能否主场取胜？
解读理由：
In my opinion Varnamo have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.
Varnamo coming to this game with the strongest possible line up, without any absences. On the other hand Kalmar is without two important midfielders - Jensen (#7) and Sachpekidis (#10).
After 10 rounds Kalmar is 6 places above Varnamo in league table (4 points difference), but according to the expected goals scored/conceded models it's not fully deserved result.
In 5 home league matches so far Kalmar conceded only 3 goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 5.96(!). It's huge difference. Kalmar also had a lot of luck in attack - they scored 13 goals in all league matches so far, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 11.09.
On the other hand Varnamo played much better than their results shows. Guests in current season conceded 10 goals in away matches, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 6.42(!). Big difference. They also scored 11 goals in all matches so far, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 13.01.
Vanramo is in good moment - they went unbeaten in last 3 matches in a row, last time when they lost, they lost at home against Hacken (leader of the table), but even in that game they shouldn't lose: expected goals scored for Vanramo 1.88, for Hacken 1.20.
It's first season in Allsvenskan in Vanramo history. They playing without any fear and they have high quality players in squad like Marcus Antonsson (second best scorer in whole league) or Oscar Johansson (top5 players in whole league according to the ratings).
On top of that, it's not typical away match for guests - they have only 2 hours drive by car from their stadium to Kalmar ground. It's not long trip at all and this is next advantage for our bet.
在我看来，韦纳穆有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少取得一分。
韦纳穆以最强的阵容参加这场比赛，没有任何缺席。另一方面，卡尔马缺少了两名重要的中场球员——詹森（#7）和萨赫佩基迪斯（#10）。
10轮过后，卡尔马在积分榜上领先瓦尔纳莫6位（4分差距），但根据预期进球/失球模型，这并不是完全应得的结果。
到目前为止，卡尔马在 5 场主场联赛中只丢了 3 个球，但根据预期丢球模型，他们应该丢 5.96（！），这是巨大的差异。卡尔马在进攻端也有很大的运气——到目前为止，他们在所有联赛中打进了 13 球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该得分 11.09。
另一方面，韦纳穆的表现比他们的结果显示的要好得多。本赛季客队客场失球10球，但按照预期失球模型应该失球6.42（！），巨大差距。到目前为止，他们在所有比赛中也打进了 11 个进球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该得分 13.01。
韦纳穆的状态不错——他们连续 3 场比赛保持不败，上一次输球时，他们在主场输给了积分榜领头羊哈肯，但即使在那场比赛中他们也不应该输球：预期进球韦纳穆1.88，哈肯1.20。
这是韦纳穆历史上参加瑞典超的第一个赛季。他们毫无畏惧地踢球，他们拥有像马库斯·安东森（全联盟第二得分手）或奥斯卡·约翰逊（根据收视率排名全联盟前五名）这样的实力出色球员。
最重要的是，这对客队来说并不是典型的客场比赛——他们从体育场到卡尔马球场只有 2 小时的车程。不是长途旅行，这是我们选择他们的另一个优势。
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作者在平台、组织、网站等发表的言论，意见，倾向等都只是作者本人的观点，和平台，组织网站等第三方没有关系。
作者在平台、组织、网站等发表的言论，意见，倾向等都只是作者本人的观点，和平台，组织网站等第三方没有关系。