Platense VS Sarmiento Junin

Platense host Sarmiento Junin for this round 5 clash of Argentinian Liga Prosesional at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Buenos Aires, the capital of Argentina. This is the first tier of this awesome football country’s football but not of very high level compared to the big European leagues. Neither of the two teams are among the favorites in this league with quite big differences between the big clubs with vast financial resources and the small teams with often pretty limited resources and players’ total market value. This match will probably not offer super good entertainment for football fans but is definitely an interesting one betting-wise! Neither team have really convinced me offensively despite the decent number of goals scored during the first 4 rounds of play.. I expect a more low-scoring match than the betting market does, and a draw is more probable than the market estimates. This result would be enough for my fans and me to take a fourth winner in a row with the recommended Sarmiento Junin +0.5 goals handicap option. The chance of winning is 66%. I do not really see either team being the favorite here - it is a coin toss. I do not really understand the odds set by the bookies here. Let’s take a closer looks..

The standings, unsurprisingly after just 4 rounds is pretty misleading in terms of many teams true class. This is the case with especially Platense. The currently occupy the 5th place in the standings with eight points in the bank and have not yet suffered a defeat. The visitors have grabbed six points so far but I expect them to improve – the potential is there. The hosts goal difference is 4:2 reflecting that that they have not been very effective offensively.. They have, however, defended surprisingly well. In terms of expected goals allowed and expected points they have had quite a lot of luck on their side and are now clearly over-valued. We must also remember that they have not faced any of the best teams in this league so far. They were pretty big underdogs according to the betting in an away match against Velez Sarsfield away from home in round two. This team have been under-performing so far – they have played five matches so far. Platense were lucky to win this match 1-0 as the hosts were definitely the better team in the match with 63% ball possession, much more scoring attempts, shots on target, completed passes, attacks and especially dangerous attacks (55-25). In their most recent match, they faced a pretty small team Aldosivi away from home as favorites and were pretty lame – lacking speed and creativity in offense and it was a goalless draw. We must not forget that Platense were bad in Copa De La Liga Profesional that was played before this league started. They ended up second-last in group A with just 10 points and an abysmal goal difference of 12:23 and won just two of the 14 matches! Sarmiento Junin, on the other hand, picked up 21 points and took 7th place. They improved for the most recent match and crushed Patronato 3-1 at home recording whopping 23 scoring attempts! Not a super good but promising performance from them.