Fluminense RJ VS Cruzeiro (MG)

Fluminense host Cruzeiro for this 1/8 final first leg of Copa do Brazil at the legendary Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro early Friday morning Beijing time. Brazil is an amazing football country and this cup – and Brazilian football in general are one the most high-quality entertainment available for football fans during the summer before the big European leagues start again. Cup matches are sometimes unpredictable, and the bookies and bettors are of course aware of this but I still see the hosts as more clear favorites then the betting market does. There are no real reasons in this match to go for the visitors taking an upset win. Typically for Brazil the home advantage is substantial here. The visitors may have chance in the second leg but here them winning would be a big surprise despite the huge motivation the surely have facing a strong, big team. Some rotating might happen here as well but the hosts have plenty of high-quality players and doing well in this competition is important for them as well.

The hosts play in Serie A, the first tier, whereas the visitors play in Serie B. The difference between the two leagues is significant indeed! Taking a look at both clubs’ players total market value the difference is also substantial in favor of the hosts. According to a very well-known and respected German website the hosts’ players are valued at almost 70 million euros, which in my opinion is definitely too low a number. At least four players are under-valued. The visitors’ squad, on the other hand, have a total market value of 17.5 million. This number is correct in my view. The biggest difference in favor of Fluminense is in offensive structure and creativity. They also play at a much faster tempo than Cruzeiro and the visitors defense will surely find themselves in trouble under the hosts’ merciless pressure. I expect them to push hard right from the kickoff boosted by the demanding home fans. Let’s remember also that the hosts have played a good season in the high-level Serie A so far and have 18 points in the bank are in 6th place. Cruzeiro, rather unsurprisingly, top the standings in Serie B but have not been as good as the standings suggest.. For example, in their most recent match they did beat Ponte Preta 2-0 at home as massive favorites but did not really convince me. The visitors even recorded more scoring attempts and both teams had three shots on goal.. Before this they were quite lame offensively and lost to Vasco 0-1 away from home. They would probably need to get lucky to avoid defeat here! 2-1 is a pretty probable score here.

GOOD LUCK!

本译文试用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周五凌晨，在具有传奇意义的Maracanã球场，弗卢米嫩塞主场迎战克鲁塞罗，进行巴西杯1/8决赛首回合的比赛。巴西是一个令人惊叹的足球国家，在欧洲联赛重新开始之前的夏天，巴西足球是球迷们可以享受到的最优质的娱乐活动之一。世界杯比赛有时是不可预测的，博彩公司和投注者当然知道这一点，但我仍然认为东道主比投注市场更受欢迎。客队没有理由在这场比赛中以冷门取胜。通常来说，巴西的主场优势是巨大的。客队在次回合可能会有机会，但在这里，他们的胜利将是一个很大的惊喜，尽管他们有巨大的动力面对一支强大的球队。这里也可能会出现一些轮换，但东道主有很多高质量的球员，在这场比赛中取得好成绩对他们来说也很重要。

东道主踢的是甲级联赛，而客队踢的是乙级联赛。两个联赛之间的差异确实很大。从两家俱乐部球员的总市值来看，东道主的差距也很大。根据一家非常知名和受人尊敬的德国网站的数据，东道主球员的身价接近7000万欧元，在我看来，这绝对是一个太低的数字。至少有四名球员被低估。另一方面，客队的总市值为1750万美元。我认为这个数字是正确的。弗卢米嫩塞最大的优势在于进攻结构和创造力。他们的节奏也比克鲁塞罗快得多，客队的防守在主队无情的压力下肯定会遇到麻烦。我希望他们能在主场球迷的推动下，从开球开始就全力以赴。让我们也记住东道主在高水平的意甲踢了一个很好的赛季，18分的银行排名第6。克鲁塞罗，毫不意外地，在乙级排名第一，但并不像排名显示的那样好。例如，在最近的一场比赛中，他们确实在主场2-0击败了庞特-普雷塔，这是最受欢迎的比赛，但并没有真正说服我。客队甚至记录了更多的射门次数，两队都有三次射正。在此之前，他们的进攻相当差劲，在客场0-1输给了瓦斯科。他们可能需要运气来避免在这里失败!2比1是一个很有可能的比分。