BARCELONA - VILLARREAL

Disagree with the odds here.

Barcelona’s season is over, they are 2nd mathematically and now it’s time to think about the next campaign. Their performances have been so poor, especially the last weekend against Getafe where they drew 0:0 with absolutely zero motivation to win.

They still have several important injuries: best defender and captain Pique, best midfielder Pedri and other key players like Depay or Araujo have had small injuries during this week. Other rotation players (Nico, Eric Garcia, Dest…) are out too.

So I’m expecting a poor and unmotivated performance by Barcelona again, with some players like Dembele who are close to leaving the club as well.

On the other hand, the main reason for this pick is found in Villarreal. After a fantastic campaign with great performances they are close to losing even the Conference League spot. Are sitting 7th in the table, with just one point advantage with Athletic Bilbao who will play away against Sevilla (who is in really bad form). But Villarreal has the goal average with them lost, so if Athletic achieves a draw (very possible) and Villarreal doesnt win, the 7th position will be for Athletic and Villarreal won’t play European competition next season.

So Villarreal depends on themselves. It could be a big blow if after a great campaign they don't even achieve to qualify for the Conference League, something which is also really important for the club, project and budget, as well as for maintaining some key players.

Their recent performances have been pretty good, with some undeserved results like the draw vs Sevilla where they deserved to win by 2-3 goals at least. In their last game where they lost vs Real Sociedad were a bit unlucky too, as they were leading 1:0, then missed a great chance to score the 2:0 and immediately conceded the draw.

I’m expecting them to play highly motivated here. They have enough quality to beat Barcelona, especially given the motivation we will see in both sides: hosts at 50% and guests at 200%.

CORINTHIANS - SAO PAULO

Classic match between two teams from Sao Paulo, where I see guests with chances to achieve at least a draw.

Corinthians are playing the Libertadores with a full squad, and their last game was last Wednesday against Boca. Next Friday they have a very important game against Always Ready (Libertadores too), where they will use a very strong lineup too in order to qualify. This means that for this match they have two options: use the best lineup and take risks (injuries, fatigue…) or make some rotations, which should be the most logical decision.

They are in good form in the Serie A, but Sao Paulo too.

Sao Paulo started the season badly but is improving every weekend. Now have three wins in a row and are unbeaten since April (10 games ago). And the most important fact - they are playing with the B team in the Sudamericana, so their best players are rested for the Serie A (in opposite Corinthians).

For this match they are more rested because they also played an easy game (3:0) at home with reserves, while Corinthians had to travel to Argentina to play a difficult game (1:1) with starters.

They are also already qualified for the next round in Sudamericana, so will be 100% focused in the league in the next weeks, starting for this important fixture.

According to the form and quality of both teams, this is a total 50-50 game. But I even see Sao Paulo slightly favorite, as Corinthians will have more fatigue in their best players. The double chance looks like the right bet for me here.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

巴塞罗那-比利亚雷亚尔

我不同意这种可能性。

巴塞罗那的赛季结束了，他们在数学上排名第二，现在是时候考虑下一个赛季了。他们的表现非常糟糕，尤其是上周末对赫塔菲的比赛，他们0比0战平，完全没有获胜的动力。

他们仍然有一些重要的伤病:最好的后卫和队长皮克，最好的中场佩德里和其他关键球员如德佩或阿劳霍在这周都有小伤。其他轮换球员(Nico, Eric Garcia, Dest…)也不在。

所以我预计巴塞罗那会再次表现糟糕，缺乏动力，还有一些球员，像丹比利，他也即将离开俱乐部。

另一方面，这个选择的主要原因是在比利亚雷亚尔。在一个表现出色的梦幻赛季之后，他们甚至接近失去联赛席位。排在积分榜第7位，只有1分的优势，毕尔巴鄂竞技将客场对阵塞维利亚(塞维利亚状态很差)。但是比利亚雷亚尔有他们输掉比赛后的平均进球数，所以如果竞技取得平局(很有可能)而比利亚雷亚尔没有赢球，那么第七位将属于竞技，比利亚雷亚尔下赛季将无法参加欧战。

所以比利亚雷亚尔依靠自己。如果在经历了一个伟大的赛季之后，他们甚至没有获得进入西部联赛的资格，这将是一个巨大的打击，这对俱乐部、项目和预算来说都是非常重要的，同时也需要留住一些关键球员。

他们最近的表现相当不错，有一些不应得的结果，比如与塞维利亚的平局，他们至少应该以2-3球获胜。在上一场输给皇家社会的比赛中，他们也有点不走运，他们1:0领先，然后错过了一个2:0的绝佳机会，很快就输掉了比赛。

我希望他们在这里表现得很积极。他们有足够的实力击败巴塞罗那，特别是考虑到我们将在双方身上看到的动力:东道主50%，客队200%。

科林蒂安-圣保罗

两支来自圣保罗的球队之间的经典比赛，我认为这里的客人有机会至少取得一场平局。

科林蒂安队正以全员阵容迎战解放者队，他们的最后一场比赛是上周三对阵博卡的比赛。下周五他们有一场非常重要的比赛，对手是“时刻准备”(还有“解放者”)，为了晋级，他们也会使用一个非常强大的阵容。这意味着在这场比赛中，他们有两个选择:使用最好的阵容，承担风险(受伤、疲劳……)或进行一些轮换，这应该是最合乎逻辑的决定。

他们在巴甲状态很好，但圣保罗也是。

圣保罗的开局很糟糕，但每个周末都在改善。现在已经连胜三场，自4月(10场比赛前)以来保持不败。最重要的是，他们在南美和B队比赛，所以他们最好的球员在巴甲(对阵科林蒂安)休息。

在本场比赛中，他们休息得更充分，因为他们在主场用替补队员打了一场轻松的比赛(3比0)，而科林蒂安斯队要去阿根廷打一场艰难的比赛(1比1)。

他们也已经获得了南美杯的资格赛资格，所以在接下来的几周，他们将100%集中精力在联赛上，从这场重要的比赛开始。

根据两队的状态和实力，这是一场五五开的比赛。但我甚至认为圣保罗是最受欢迎的，因为科林蒂安最好的球员将会更加疲劳。对我来说，双倍的机会似乎是正确的赌注。