Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

Tico host the fresh Champions League finalists Real Madrid for this Madrid derby at Wanda Metropolitano in front of enthusiastic fans. These games are normally intense and physical and often include all kind drama.. However, I believe today’s match will be very different indeed! There are two main reasons for this. First of all, the whole football world probably knows that Real Madrid made it to the Champions League final in Paris after an absolutely fantastic match against Manchester City, the best team in the world last Wednesday. If some of my fans have not seen the last 10 mins of the match, I recommend watching it! Real Madrid fought back from a 0-1 down in the last minutes of the match and exploded the super fanatic home crowd into a stunningly loud celebration! However, this did not win them the matchup - a 30 minute extra match – 5-5 on aggregate – followed. Karim Benzema scored from a penalty kick and after that the stunned, even paralyzed Citizens could not do much. This set up a Champions League final against Liverpool at the end of the month. It will be a re-match from 2018 when Real were victorious after very questionable tricks by Sergio Ramos.. We must realize that according to advanced statistics Real were not the better team against PSG, Chelsea or Manchester City in the Champions League play offs..

Real Madrid have already secured the LaLiga title so they will fully concentrate on the final against Liverpool, the second-best team in the world. Real Madrid will probably rest many key players today which lowers their chances a lot.. Another factor is the mental and physical state of Real’s players. Yes, they are pro-athletes but surely they have celebrated after the Man City match.. It is impossible for me to see them being 100% ready for this match against a tough and - most all - very motivated Tico. The hosts are in a fierce battle with Betis for a top4 position and a Champions League ticket for next season. Winning this match would be very important for the hosts. Beating a long-term rival and one of the most iconic clubs in the world is a piece of extra motivation as well.

Even putting aside the motivation and mental physical factor we must remember that, as I have written numerous times, Real Madrid are chronically over-rated by the betting market. They have grabbed some 14 points more than they would have deserved in terms of expected points in LaLiga so far. By raw class, they are of course better than the hosts, but not by a wide margin. Tico, on the other hand, have been a little unlucky this season in LaLiga and would have deserved 3 more points. Despite making the final we must remember that Real’s level has come down a lot from their glory years in 2010-2018 and the betting market and many analysts have failed to fully realize just how much they have declined long-term.. Kroos, Modric and many other key players are still technically excellent of course but already too slow for the absolute top-level. I want to mention Casemiro too - he is very error-prone these days. The hosts have a clearly over 50% chance today and even a clear win would not be a big surprise!