FORTUNA DUSSELDORF - DARMSTADT

Generous odds for Darmstad here.

I understand the reasoning behind the odds because for Darmstadt this is of course a super important match and a massive chance, whereas Dusseldorf actually play for nothing table-wise. Other than that, Dusseldorf would, of course, never have such a large price.

As a matter of fact, Dusseldorf are currently a top 3 or at least top 5 side in terms of performance. They are on eyes level with the big clubs in the league. Looking at their last 10 games, they are the 2nd best team after leaders Schalke and the only one unbeaten.

They have made impressive development since Thioune became their new manager. They are unbeaten in 11 games with him! And actually, they have even been unfortunate since then. Against Regensburg (0:0), Karlsruhe (2:2), Hamburg (1:1) and Dresden (2:2), Dusseldorf were clearly superior sides with many more chances. They were super unlucky in each of those games to not win. At Paderborn (1:1), they had half their squad out with Covid and the only weaker game was at Hannover (0:0), when they played 11 vs. 10 for 75 minutes and somehow couldn't handle that situation.

But as you can see, Dusseldorf have been unbeaten since 11 games, and still they have been underperforming heavily. No way this strong team may ever stand at such a large price at home in front of their great fans against Darmstadt. Also experience has proven that they always look best against teams that play offensively. Their two best season games were at home against leaders Schalke (2:1) and 4th placed Hamburg (1:1) when they were underdogs against top teams. The situation against Darmstadt will be similar.

I strongly respect Darmstadt, too, and they were great last weekend when humiliating safely relegated side Aue (6:0). But they cannot be such clear favorites away at strong Dusseldorf. Dusseldorf won't suddenly throw away their unbeaten record, especially not in their own stadium.

Some regulars like defender Nemanja Celic, striker Aaron Seydel and midfielder Fabian Schnellhardt are out.

So the motivation factor is wrongly estimated here and leads to these wrong odds. There’s a big difference here: hosts will play without pressure, guests will have nerves and this isn’t a good deal for them, as we saw in their recent away games where they lost 2 of the last 3.

A lot of fans are expected, probably the biggest amount of the whole season in the last home game of Dusseldorf, a team who was a promotion contender at the beginning of the season.

LEVANTE - REAL SOCIEDAD

Bet based on the recent performances of both teams.

Levante is at the bottom, but clearly the team has improved a lot lately. They still have a huge problem in defense (conceding many goals and chances) but the team is creating danger and chances in attack, scoring goals and winning points. In the last 5 games they had a very difficult calendar and only lost vs Barcelona and Sevilla, in both cases missing a penalty from 1:2 down (Sevilla) and 1:0 up (Barcelona).

The team still looks motivated, in spite that they need almost a miracle to avoid relegation (are 6 points below safe zone with 12 on play), but are the team on relegation who is in better form.

In fact, their numbers in the last games aren’t from a relegation team (and bottom): they are 16th in the last 20, 13th in the last 15 and 10,, and 7th in the last 5. So as you can see, they are clearly improving lately in spite of the bad luck with some injuries and the penalties/chances missed.

For this match the club put tickets for sale for 4 to 12€, with the aim to have as many fans as possible and big support.

On the other hand, Real Sociedad is in the worst moment of the season. The team has a huge problem with the lack of goal, they are scoring very few goals and their strikers are in really bad form. Key player Isaak has scored only 5 goals this season, and their best player and topsocrer Oyarzabal is injured.

Only 4 teams have scored less goals (just 33 in 34 rounds): Getafe (15th), Mallorca (16th), Cadiz (17th) and Alaves (19th). Even Levante, who is at the bottom, has scored 9 goals more.

They are winless in the last 3 games, with very poor performances and ban sensations. The team looks exhausted and missed in the field, coach is making too many changes and the attitude of the players are so bad, as we saw in their last fixture vs Rayo Vallecano (1-1) where the rival had nothing on play (and Real Sociedad is fighting for European spots) and made an awful second half.

Both teams have motivation to win, but I see Levante in better form here. I think they will play with more motivation and surely will find some chances, they just need to try to not concede too many goals here.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

杜塞尔多夫-达姆施塔特

我理解这种可能性背后的原因，因为对达姆施塔特来说，这当然是一场超级重要的比赛，也是一个巨大的机会，而杜塞尔多夫实际上是在比赛中没有任何优势。除此之外，杜塞尔多夫当然不会有这么高的价格。

事实上，杜塞尔多夫目前的表现是前三，至少是前五。他们与联赛中的大俱乐部不相上下。看看他们最近的10场比赛，他们是仅次于领头羊沙尔克的第二强队，也是唯一一支不败的球队。

自从Thioune成为他们的新经理后，他们取得了令人印象深刻的发展。有他的球队11场不败!实际上，从那时起他们就一直很不幸。对阵雷根斯堡(0:0)、卡尔斯鲁厄(2:2)、汉堡(1:1)和德累斯顿(2:2)，杜塞尔多夫显然更有优势，机会更多。他们在每一场比赛中都非常不幸没有赢球。在帕德伯恩(1:1)，他们与新冠(Covid)的比赛中，他们的一半阵容被淘汰，唯一弱的比赛是在汉诺威(0:0)，当时他们以11比10打了75分钟，不知怎么的，他们无法处理这种情况。

但正如你所看到的，杜塞尔多夫自11场比赛以来一直保持不败，但他们仍然表现严重不佳。这支强大的球队不可能在主场对阵达姆施塔特的比赛中，面对他们伟大的球迷，付出如此高昂的代价。经验也证明，他们总是在对阵进攻型球队时表现最好。他们赛季表现最好的两场比赛分别是主场对阵领头羊沙尔克(2:1)和排名第四的汉堡(1:1)，而他们在对阵顶级球队时处于劣势。达姆施塔特的情况也会类似。

我也非常尊重达姆施塔特，上周末他们在被降级的乌埃队(6:0)中表现非常出色。但在强大的杜塞尔多夫，他们不可能如此明显地受到青睐。杜塞尔多夫不会突然放弃他们的不败纪录，尤其是在他们自己的球场。

一些常规球员，如后卫内曼贾·塞里奇，前锋亚伦·塞德尔和中场费边·施内尔哈特都不能上场。

所以这里的动机因素估计错误导致了这些错误的概率。这里有一个很大的区别:东道主会在比赛中没有压力，而客人会紧张，这对他们来说不是一件好事，正如我们在最近的客场比赛中看到的，他们在最近的3场比赛中输了2场。

在杜塞尔多夫队的最后一场主场比赛中，很多球迷都在期待，这可能是整个赛季球迷人数最多的一场比赛，这支球队在赛季开始时是晋级的有力争夺者。

莱万特——皇家社会

根据两队最近的表现打赌。

莱万特排名垫底，但很明显球队最近进步了很多。他们在防守上仍然有很大的问题(失去了很多进球和机会)，但球队在进攻中创造了危险和机会，进球和得分。在过去的5场比赛中，他们的赛程非常艰难，只输给了巴塞罗那和塞维利亚，在1:2落后的时候(塞维利亚)和1:0领先的时候(巴塞罗那)都罚失了一个点球。

球队看起来仍然很有动力，尽管他们几乎需要一个奇迹来避免降级(在12场比赛中比安全区域低6分)，但他们是处于降级状态的球队，状态更好。

事实上，他们在最近几场比赛中的数据并不是来自降级球队(或垫底):他们在最后20场比赛中排名第16，在最后15场和10场比赛中排名第13，在最后5场比赛中排名第7。所以正如你所看到的，他们最近明显在进步，尽管运气不好，有一些受伤和错失点球/机会。

为了获得尽可能多的球迷和大力支持，俱乐部将这场比赛的门票价格定为4至12欧元。

另一方面，皇家社会正处于本赛季最糟糕的时刻。球队在进球不足方面有很大的问题，他们进的球很少，他们的前锋状态很差。主力队员艾萨克本赛季只进了5球，而他们最好的球员和顶级足球运动员奥亚尔扎巴尔受伤了。

只有4支球队的进球数比它少(34轮中只有33个):赫塔菲(第15轮)、马略卡(第16轮)、加的斯(第17轮)和阿尔维斯(第19轮)。就连排名垫底的莱万特也多进了9球。

他们在最近的三场比赛中都没有赢，表现很差，被禁赛了。团队看起来筋疲力尽,错过了,教练让太多的变化和球员的态度是如此糟糕,我们看到在他们最后的夹具和第六轮(1 - 1),竞争对手没有在玩(和皇家社会争取欧洲景点),做了一个可怕的下半年。

两支球队都有获胜的动力，但我在这里看到莱万特的状态更好。我认为他们会有更多的动力，肯定会找到一些机会，他们只是需要尽量不要丢太多球。