Two poor teams in out-of-form, and I choose to go for a big handicap. Why?

Last 7 Valencia results with xG, not much to cheer about! One win in 7, vs relegation candidates Valladolid. To be fair the schedule has not been easy lately.

The form of Elche is even worse if possible. As a whole they are the worst team in the league both in actual points, and in the underlying data, pretty much in every category. It is also worth noticing that their latest win came 14 rounds ago, in late October.

The opponent then was who else than Valencia. The scoreboard showed a 2-1 home win, but in truth Elche lost the shots by 3-14, and they created worth of about 0.17 xG in the game! Their winless run should be longer, in fact they have not deserved to win any of their games but they have been lucky in finishing.

I could write a lot about Valencia's troubles but they are likely to survive this season as they can field a rather strong starting lineup, and their defensive weakness are highlighted mostly when they face the top-10 teams. There is some really depressing data about their defensive figures, for example

They've only limited their opposition to less than 1 expected goal in 5 matches this season (and they only took 7 points from those 5 matches).

Fortunately Elche is one of those teams who are unlikely to threaten to score, and as Valencia are rather good offensively this might turn out to be easier than it seems on paper!

There were also good discilpary news as coach Javi Gracia and cb Guillamon are available for this after all. Valencia played a cup game with reserve players on midweek and most of the key players upfront are available, the only attacking doubt is winger Cheryshev. Diakhaby and Correia are missed from defense, but I do not see Elche getting that far. Soler, Maxi Gomez and Manu Vallejo will do the job.

At Elche the two expected biggest weapons Fidel and Carrillo, and I have said it several times before, Elche are the worst team in league and should not be here at all, and as I also rate home coach Javi Gracia as a top guy who knows what he is doing Valencia should be on their best in a six pointer like this.

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本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

两个状态不佳的球队，而我选择了让球胜高赔。为什么?

在过去的7场巴伦西亚的预期进球数表中，没有什么值得欢呼的!七场只赢了一场，对阵降级候选者巴利亚多利德。不过说句公道话，最近的日程安排并不容易。

埃尔切的形式可能更糟。从整体上看，无论是实际得分还是基本数据来看，他们都是联盟最差的球队，几乎在所有类别中都是如此。同样值得注意的是，他们最近一次获胜是在14轮之前的10月下旬。

当时的对手就是巴伦西亚。记分板显示主场2-1获胜，但事实上埃尔切同巴伦西亚的射门比是3:14，他们在比赛中创造了约0.17 xG的价值!他们的无胜之路应该更长，事实上他们没有资格赢得任何一场比赛，但他们很幸运地完成了比赛。

我可以写很多关于巴伦西亚的麻烦的文章，但他们很可能在这个赛季生存下来，因为他们可以派出一个相当强大的首发阵容，他们的防守弱点在面对前10强的球队时被突出。例如，关于他们的防御数据有一些非常令人沮丧的数据：

在本赛季的5场比赛中，他们只把对手的预期进球限制在了1个以内(他们在这5场比赛中只拿了7分)。

幸运的是，埃尔切是那些不太可能威胁得分的球队之一，而瓦伦西亚的进攻很好，这可能会比表面上看起来容易。

同时也有好消息传来，哈维·格雷西亚和吉列蒙最终都可以上场。巴伦西亚在周中与预备队球员进行了一场杯赛的比赛，大部分的关键球员都可以上场，唯一的进攻怀疑是边锋切雷舍夫。防守端迪亚卡比和科雷亚缺阵，但我不认为埃尔切能威胁到巴伦西亚。索莱尔、马克西·戈麦斯和马努·瓦列霍将会胜任这份工作。

埃尔切两个预期最大武器菲德尔和Carrillo,之前和我说过好几次了,埃尔切是最差的球队。

预测比分3:0。