Manchester City asian handicap -1 is my bet here. I select -1 handicap in the Lottery because odds for straight win are too low.

Manchester City is the main title contender for this tournament. They are playing great, dominating all teams and being a very difficult team to beat.

In this tournament they dominated all rivals, and only struggled a lot against Atletico de Madrid who played with 11 defenders and inside their own area, something that Real Madrid won’t do.

The only way to beat Manchester City is to be ultra defensive, make a perfect game without any mistakes, and be lucky with some counter or set piece to score a goal. In any other kind of game, with Manchester City dominating, they will win.

Physically they aren’t in their best form, but I think it won't be a problem for a team like them, who use to have 60-70% possession and they don't need to make big efforts.

On the other hand, Real Madrid is here with a lot of luck. They were outplayed against PSG and Chelsea, but managed to qualify thanks to the second game at home in the Santiago Bernabeu, with some huge mistakes by goalkeepers or lucky goals. But if we analyze the games and the knockout, they didn't deserve to qualify.

Unlike other teams against Man City, Real Madrid won’t make a defensive game. They never do it and already showed against PSG and Chelsea that they will try to take the ball and attack. And that's great for Guardiola's side.

But physically they are in a bad moment and this is a problem for them because today, we will have a run a lot. Furthermore, several key players have small injuries and will be forced to play today (even without being at 100%), like Casemiro, Alaba, Militao or Mendy.

For this match, Manchester City knows that they have to “kill” Real Madrid if they want to qualify. Firstly, because the second game in Santiago Bernabeu will be so tight, with a huge reaction by Real Madrid as they did in the previous rounds. Probably, the most dangerous game to play in Champions League because Real Madrid has something special which makes them unbeatable at home in those kind of games. Even PSG didn't manage to qualify with a 2 goals difference, so surely hosts will try to score as many goals as possible here.

Secondly, because they saw how they struggled against Atletico Madrid in the second game when they won just 1:0 in the first leg, where Simeone's guys reacted in the seond game at home and deserved to win.

For me Manchester City is slightly favorite to qualify. And to do that, for sure they will need to win by at least 2 goals here in my opinion.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

曼城队是本次锦标赛冠军的主要争夺者。他们打得很好，统治了所有球队，是一支很难打败的球队。

在这场比赛中，他们统治了所有的对手，只是在自己的区域内与有11名后卫的马德里竞技(Atletico de Madrid)交手，这是皇家马德里做不到的。

击败曼城的唯一方法是超强的防守，在一场没有任何失误的完美比赛中，幸运地用一些反击或定位球进球。在任何其他类型的比赛中，只要曼城占据统治地位，他们就会赢。

他们的身体状况不是最好的，但我认为这对他们这样的球队来说不是问题，他们过去有60-70%的控球率，他们不需要付出太多努力。

另一方面，皇马在这里很幸运。他们在与巴黎圣日耳曼和切尔西的比赛中败北，但在主场圣地亚哥伯纳乌的第二场比赛中，凭借守门员的一些重大失误或幸运进球，他们成功晋级。但如果我们分析一下比赛和淘汰赛，他们不配晋级。

与其他球队对阵曼城不同，皇马不会进行防守。他们从来没有做到这一点，在对阵巴黎圣日尔曼和切尔西的比赛中，他们已经表现出了他们会试图拿球进攻。这对瓜迪奥拉的球队来说是个好消息。

但他们的身体状况很差，这对他们来说是个问题，因为今天，我们要跑很多次。此外，一些关键球员有小伤，将被迫今天上场(即使没有100%恢复)，比如卡塞米罗、阿拉巴、米利陶或曼迪。

对于这场比赛，曼城知道他们必须“杀死”皇家马德里，如果他们想晋级。首先，第二场在伯纳乌的比赛将会非常激烈，皇马的反应和前几轮一样激烈。这可能是欧冠中最危险的比赛，因为皇马在这类比赛中有一些特别的东西，使他们在主场不可战胜。即使是巴黎圣日耳曼也没有以两球的差距进入资格赛，所以东道主肯定会在这里尽可能多地进球。

第二，因为他们看到了他们在第二场比赛中对阵马德里竞技时的挣扎，他们在第一回合中只赢了1比0，而西蒙尼的队员们在主场的第二场比赛中做出了反应，他们理应赢。

对我来说，曼城是晋级的最佳人选。要做到这一点，在我看来，他们肯定需要赢得至少2个进球。