These are very generous odds as I post the pick on the market - 1.65 on average for Napoli win should eventually fall to around 1.50sh as the clock turns around midnight and the markets get bigger.

Empoli is one of those teams, who have finished the season a long time ago. They reached their number 1 goal, which was staying up in Serie A and once relegation was no longer an issue, the team switched to a very careless random mode and has been losing games systematically to more motivated opponents from the top 6 of the table. As the most recent examples:

0-1 vs. Fiorentina

0-1 vs. Milan

2-3 vs. Juventus

Besides, the team has been winless for what seems like forever - their last victory in Serie A came, ironically, against Napoli on December 12th 2021. Since then Empoli’s been only losing or drawing their games and they head into the Sunday fixture on the background of 1-4 demolition vs. Udinese.

Even with this amazing streak of results Empoli is still unbothered by the teams in the relegation group - the handicap from 18th placed Genoa is +12 (!!) points with 15 points left to play for.

Napoli is in the title race with Inter and Milan and while I expect Spalletti to traditionally choke the finishing sprint and end up 3rd, this is by no means a game, where he should be failing to take maximum points.

Napoli have a VERY easy schedule in the final rounds with games against Genoa, Spezia and Sassuolo still to come.

I would have guessed the high initial odds for Napoli were determined by the absence of their leading centre-back Koulibaly (suspended), but this does not look like a serious issue to me given the level of opposition.

I expect Napoli to prevail through superior and clearer motivation + Empoli’s inferior home advantage- they have the lowest average attendance (5651 fans) in the league.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

恩波利在很久以前就结束了这个赛季。他们达到了他们在意甲的第一目标，一旦降级不再是问题，这支球队就转向了一种非常粗心的随机模式，并且已经系统地输掉了比赛，对手更有动力，从联赛前6名。最近的例子是:

0 - 1与佛罗伦萨

0 - 1与米兰

2 - 3与尤文图斯

此外，这支球队似乎永远都没有赢过——他们在意甲的最后一场胜利，讽刺的是，是在2021年12月12日对阵那不勒斯的时候。从那以后，恩波利只输过或平局，他们在1比4大胜乌迪内斯的背景下进入了周日的比赛。

即使取得了如此惊人的成绩，恩波利仍然没有受到降级组球队的影响——与排名第18的热那亚的差点是+12分(!!)，还有15分。

那不勒斯正在与国际米兰和米兰争夺冠军，虽然我预计斯帕莱蒂会传统地扼制最后冲刺，以第三名的成绩结束比赛，但这绝不是一场他不应该拿不到最高分的比赛。

那不勒斯在最后一轮的赛程表很轻松，接下来还有热那亚、斯佩齐亚和萨索洛。

我本以为那不勒斯的高赔率是由他们的主要中后卫库利巴利(停赛)的缺席决定的，但在我看来，考虑到对手的水平，这并不是一个严重的问题。

我希望那不勒斯能通过更强大更清晰的动力和恩波利的主场优势取胜——他们的平均上座率是联赛最低的(5651名球迷)。