Battle for promotion in Germany!
2022-04-23

Borja

外籍分析师

解读理由:

Bremen asian handicap +0 is my bet here. They should be pretty clear favourites.

They are sitting 2nd on the table, 2 points below Schalke. Are the best team in the league that has lately been slightly underperforming. In their last away game, they went in on a -0.5 line away against St Pauli (3rd). In that match, Bremen were the better side with more chances. I deem St Pauli slightly better than Schalke, but now odds are out of a sudden even. That does not make much sense.

Schalke (1st) have been the by far the largest overperformers in this league. They are on a winning streak but it's been a mixture of high efficiency, thanks to clinical striker Terodde, plus tons of luck.Taking for example their last home game against Heidenheim: Schalke won 3:0, but everybody who saw this game will agree that it was Heidenheim who were the better team. It could have easily been 0:2 at half time, but instead Schalke had a lead (lucky goal from dead ball situation) which they then extended with their first chance in the second half. Similar courses of game have happened very frequently in the previous weeks. Again, their efficiency is not only luck, they simply have the most clinical striker with Terodde upfront. But they are not nearly as good as their results show.

Furthermore, Schalke have huge personnel problems. Their best player Ouweijan will most likely still be out injured against Bremen. Their experienced midfielder Latza was severely injured in the last match as well. They played their last two games with Matricani and Calhanoglu as wing backs, two super young and inexperienced guys. Especially last week against Darmstadt (when Schalke were again lucky), those two guys had massive problems defensively and were weak points. I believe that this lack of experience at the wing back positions can cost them the game against a strong team like Bremen.

Bremen is the clearly superior team, and they should hence be favorites in this vital game in the promotion race. The home factor alone cannot be reason enough to put Schalke on eyes level here. Bremen will be extremely motivated in this do or die game, and they should certainly be favorites here due to much more quality and experience on their side.


不莱梅不败是我的选择。他们应该是本场的热门。

他们在积分榜上排名第二,落后沙尔克 2 分。是联赛中最近的最佳球队。在他们的最近一场客场比赛中,他们在客场对阵圣保利(第 3 名)。在那场比赛中,不来梅表现更好,机会也更多。我认为圣保利略好于沙尔克,但现在赔率突然变了。这没有多大意义。

沙尔克(第 1 名)是迄今为止联盟中表现最好的球队。他们取得了连胜,但这是高效率的混合体,这要归功于前锋特罗德,再加上运气。以他们上一场主场对阵海登海姆的比赛为例:沙尔克0:3获胜,但看过这场比赛的每个人都会同意海登海姆是更好的球队。半场结束时本可以轻松地以 0:2 领先,但沙尔克 (Schalke) 取得了领先(死球情况下的幸运进球),然后他们将比分扩大他们下半场的第一次机会。在过去的几周里,类似的比赛过程非常频繁地发生。再一次,他们的效率不仅仅是运气,他们只是拥有最好的前锋,特罗德是前锋。但它们并不像结果显示的那么好。

此外,沙尔克还存在巨大的人员问题。他们最好的球员欧维扬在对阵不来梅的比赛中很可能仍会受伤。他们经验丰富的中场球员拉扎在上一场比赛中也受了重伤。他们与马特里卡尼和恰尔汗奥卢作为边后卫打了最后两场比赛,这两个超级年轻且缺乏经验的球员。尤其是上周对阵达姆施塔特(沙尔克又一次幸运的时候),这两个球员在防守上有很大的问题,而且是弱点。我相信在边后卫位置上缺乏经验可能会让他们在与不来梅这样的强队的比赛中输掉比赛。

不来梅显然是一支优势球队,因此他们应该在这场至关重要的晋级比赛中成为赢球的热门。这仅靠主场因素不足以让沙尔克在此受到关注。不来梅在这场生死攸关的比赛中将非常有动力,他们当然应该是这里的热门,因为他们有更多的实力和经验。

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